Armed but dangerous

BY CHRIS HAFT
The Cincinnati Enquirer

If everything goes right, the Reds will have one of the deepest starting rotations in the major leagues.

When spring began, either Denny Neagle, right, or Pete Harnisch, left, was going to start on Opening Day. Now, both are hurt and Brett Tomko gets the start today. (Craig Ruttle | ZOOM)

If just a few things go wrong, the Reds will be extremely desperate.

Put together the best seasons compiled by Steve Avery, Jason Bere, Pete Harnisch, Denny Neagle and Brett Tomko, and their won-loss record is an impressive 77-29.

''We have four guys that have more than 10 wins last year (all but Bere),'' Tomko said. ''You go around the league and there's not a whole lot of staffs like that.''

But consider the facts:

• Harnisch suffered lower back spasms late in spring training and was scratched from his Opening Day start, which Tomko inherited.

• Neagle begins the season on the disabled list with weakened shoulder muscles. There is no guarantee that he could return by April 10, the first day he is eligible to be activated.

• Because of injuries, ineffectiveness and bad luck, Avery has not pitched more than 135 innings in any of the last three years.

• Bere seems to have overcome extensive elbow surgery in 1996. But, like Avery, Bere hasn't worked more than 143 innings since 1993, so his season-long durability has yet to be proven.

Chances are, the Reds' luck won't go totally sour. But they must spend their season hoping for contributions from their starting rotation instead of expecting them.

Harnisch will help if he's anywhere close to normal health. The right-hander rebounded from clinical depression to regain his All-Star form last year, leading the Reds with a 14-7 record and a 3.14 ERA.

With 24 victories in his first two seasons, Tomko appears poised to become an elite pitcher. He expects an improved change-up to help him continue his promising career path (11-7 in 1997, 13-12 last year).

Considered one of baseball's best young pitchers (24-7 in 1993-94 with the Chicago White Sox) before hurting his elbow, Bere established himself as an asset late last season by winning three of five decisions. His crackling fastball was the talk of camp in early spring workouts.

Avery, who won 47 games for Atlanta from 1991-93 before encountering a variety of injuries, has returned to the over-the-top throwing style that characterized his glory days. The Boston Red Sox urged him to throw sidearm last year, which the left-hander disliked. Avery hasn't regained his full velocity, but he pitched effectively enough in spring to win three of his four decisions.

The Reds won't be able to count on Neagle, who won 52 games in the last three seasons, until later in April. Fortunately for them, they don't have to, because several scheduled off days will enable Cincinnati to use a four-man rotation much of the season's first two months.

''I don't think one guy is looked upon to do everything,'' Bere said. ''When I was in Chicago, we had the same type of atmosphere. It seemed everyone rubbed off on each other. I think that's probably what will happen here.''

If the Reds need reinforcements, left-hander Dennys Reyes, who'll likely open the season in the majors as a reliever, could start. Reyes was ineffective as a starter during spring games but pitched well in relief, particularly against left-handed hitters. He was 3-1 with a 4.42 ERA in eight games, all but one a start, for the Reds last year.

There's also Steve Parris, who doesn't get a whole lot of respect but was quietly effective last year (6-5, 3.73 ERA in 18 appearances, all but two as a starter). Parris will open the year with Triple-A Indianapolis, but given the injuries that strike every season, he'll probably wear a Reds uniform at some juncture.