Sunday, October 3, 2004
Season wrapup: Unarmed, not dangerous
Pitching woes plague Reds into fourth straight losing season
By John Fay
Enquirer staff writer
Things haven't been as bad for the Reds in almost 50 years as they are right now.
The club is headed for its fourth consecutive losing season. That hasn't happened since the team had 11 consecutive losing seasons from 1945-55. The winning percentage for the first five years of this decade is the worst since the 1930s.
But as troubling as that is, it's downright distressing for fans to think the Reds could be becoming the Pittsburgh Pirates West and the Milwaukee Brewers South. Those franchise are completing their 12th straight losing seasons today.
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QUESTIONS
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Five questions facing the Reds in the offseason
1 Who's on third? Assuming Felipe Lopez has won the shortstop job - and it certainly looks as if he has - the Reds need a third baseman. Ryan Freel is the best candidate on the roster, plus he gives the Reds a true leadoff man. There's also a possibility Lopez will play third and Anderson Machado will play shortstop. But it's a stretch to think Machado will hit enough to play every day. If the Reds are going to sign a free agent position player, a third baseman is probably the best choice.
2 To tender or not to tender? The Reds have two arbitration-eligible players - D'Angelo Jimenez and Jason LaRue - on whom they'll have to make tough calls. Jimenez has had a solid year, but he makes $1.615 million and will get a big raise. The Cubs' Todd Walker, a comparable second baseman, signed for $1.75 million as a free agent last year. LaRue continues to struggle defensively. He makes $2.6 million and will get a good raise. Could the Reds do better through free agency?
3 How do you play four players in three spots? Assuming everyone's healthy, the Reds have one too many outfielders. Adam Dunn and Ken Griffey Jr. are going to play every day. That leaves either Austin Kearns or Wily Mo Pena as an extra player. That's not a good way to use your talent. A trade of one of the four or Sean Casey (thus opening first base for Griffey) would solve the logjam. The other possibility is moving Kearns to third, although Reds insiders are not big on that idea.
4 How do you fix the bullpen? This has to be the No. 1 priority for the offseason. The Reds have some help in the minors (Todd Coffey, Brian Shackelford), but they probably need to bring in at least two right-handers and a left-hander. Relief help comes cheaper than starting pitching, so the Reds could find a quick fix.
5 Who's going to be the veteran to anchor the starting rotation? The most obvious choice is Paul Wilson. The Reds are confident they can re-sign him. If they don't, they need to get a veteran of the same caliber.
--John Fay
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The Reds are a long way from that, but everything the club has done lately is part of the long-term plan. Pittsburgh and Milwaukee have been on long-term plans for a long time.
What are the chances that the worst is behind the Reds?
"The answer, as usual, lies in our ability to improve our pitching for next year," Reds general manager Dan O'Brien said.
The question, as usual, is whether the Reds actually can improve their pitching.
Because it's clear that, at least short term, the Reds would have to go the free agency route to get competitive pitching for 2005.
So will the money be there?
If the payroll budget remains at $46 million as it was for 2004, the Reds will have a hard time keeping the players they have - much less signing free agents.
That won't be the case. The payroll will be higher in 2005, but Reds chief operating officer John Allen won't say how much higher.
"I'm anticipating it will go up," Allen said. "We're not going to go public with the figure, and we're not even sure what it will be at this point."
Allen doesn't talk about such things, but simple math indicates the Reds had a good year in 2004 as far as the bottom line is concerned. Their payroll went down 23 percent from 2003 to 2004. Their attendance, going into the final two dates, was off only 2.9 percent. The vouchers for tickets that chief executive officer Carl Lindner distributed skewed the numbers somewhat, but going into the weekend, only about 106,000 of the 400,000 vouchers had been redeemed. Lindner paid for the vouchers personally.
Allen runs the day-to-day operations of the club, but the decision to make a big bump in payroll would have to come from Lindner.
Lindner was unhappy when he was booed on Opening Day this year. Whether that will influence his decision on the payroll is anyone's guess.
Allen would say only: "We're all here to win, including ownership."
If Lindner decides to get the payroll back up to $59 million, as it was in 2003, there's a good chance for a quick turnaround.
"I think there's light at the end of the tunnel," shortstop Barry Larkin said. "The young (starting) pitching staff has done OK. That's a good thing. There's young talent with Felipe (Lopez), (Anderson) Machado and (Wily Mo) Pena. There are a lot of reasons for optimism."
The Reds are in relatively good shape with their nucleus of young position players. Four of the nine top position players - Dunn, Austin Kearns, Lopez and Pena - are under 25.
If Lopez is going to be the everyday shortstop, the only position that needs to be filled is third base.
"There is no immediately obvious third baseman in the picture," O'Brien said. "We're going to have to look outside (to fill it). That's the most obvious."
Ryan Freel and top prospect Edwin Encarnacion will get opportunities at third if the Reds don't bring in a free agent.
Encarnacion is a long shot for 2005, though.
"Everyone knows we consider him a legitimate prospect to be our third baseman of the future," O'Brien said. "The question is the timetable."
The Reds aren't looking at Kearns as an option at third. The plan for now is to go into the season with four outfielders of starting caliber - Dunn, Kearns, Pena and Ken Griffey Jr. - sharing three positions.
"In doing that, we're making an assumption that Junior is going to be 100 percent healthy," O'Brien said. "We're counting on that. He's worked hard on his rehab and we're very encouraged."
Still, no matter the depth or talent of the position players, as O'Brien said, the Reds' success, or lack thereof, will come down to pitching.
The club entered Saturday with a 5.22 ERA. Only the Colorado Rockies, who play half their games at a high altitude, have a higher ERA (5.52).
If the Reds can re-sign Paul Wilson - and they expect to - the starting pitching has a chance to be OK for 2005. Luke Hudson, Aaron Harang and Josh Hancock have pitched well down the stretch. The Reds have to be concerned about Brandon Claussen because of his struggles, but he has had his share of good starts as well.
"They have all shown us flashes of what they are capable of doing," O'Brien said. "What we're trying to do at this point is develop a level of consistency so they can be reliable major-league starting pitchers."
The bullpen is a bigger problem. Of the 10 relievers on the season-ending roster, only one - Danny Graves - has an ERA under 4.00. Only two - Graves and Ryan Wagner - are under 5.00.
Graves has a contract through 2005 with an option for 2006. Jose Acevedo, Joe Valentine and Wagner, though signed through the 2004 season, almost certainly will be back. That leaves at least three openings.
O'Brien mentioned Todd Coffey and Brian Shackelford as minor-leaguers who could help in 2005.
"As to whether or not they're capable of helping us in '05 remains to be seen," O'Brien said. "What we're trying to do is expedite their development. It's difficult to put a timetable on it."
That means free agent help is paramount.
"I would say, as we sit here today, it's going to have to be a combination of free agent additions and players from within the system," O'Brien said.
Again, how much help the Reds can get depends on how much money they have to spend.
And how much they have to spend is a corporate secret.
"We plan on looking at the free agent market to get players to help us win," Allen said. "Dan certainly understands that. I don't think we're going to make wholesale changes (through free agency). But we're going to look at filling some slots."
Woeful decade
So far, this decade is shaping up as the worst for the Reds since the 1930s:
The Reds have a long list of dubious distinctions as far as pitching goes this year (statistics are entering Friday):
• The team ERA of 5.25 will be the highest in club history, breaking last year's record of 5.09.
• The Reds have allowed 233 home runs, the most in club history. The previous record of 209 was set last year.
• The pitching has gotten steadily worse after a decent start. On June 6, the team ERA was 4.36 and opponents were hitting .270. The ERA is 5.72 since, and opponents are hitting .288.
