By John Fay
Enquirer staff writer

Todd Van Poppel has struggled this season, with a 3-5 record and 6.15 ERA in 93 2/3 innings. The team ERA is 5.35. (Jeff Swinger photo)

ARMS ON HORIZON

Here are some pitching prospects to watch for 2005: RHP Todd Coffey, 23: He throws up to 95 mph with great control. Could be a setup man for '05. RHP Daylan Childress, 25: The fifth-round pick in 2001. He's going to the Arizona Fall League. RHP Richie Gardner, 22: The sixth-round pick last year. He's 12-5 with a 2.65 ERA this year and already is in Double-A. RHP Dustin Moseley, 22: First-rounder in 2000. Coming off a good start in Triple-A Louisville. RHP Thomas Pauley, 23: Second-rounder last year. He's pitching at Potomac. His stuff - he throws 95 mph - could have him moving up quickly.

One thing that has been abundantly clear as the Reds faded from contender to pretender this season is the pitching is not good enough to win.

You can make a strong argument, in fact, that is it the worst in the National League. The team ERA is 5.35. Only the Colorado Rockies' is worse at 5.62, but the Reds probably would be pushing 6.00 if they played half their games a mile above sea level.

For things to be any better in 2005, the Reds must get help from the farm system. And though there is some talent at the minor-league level, the Reds don't have the arms to turn it around from within.

"I don't think any organization has the depth as far as pitching to resolve all its needs," said general manager Dan O'Brien. "I think we've got a handful of individuals who can play a role in the 2005 season.

"We'll look at any and all potential ways to add players - trades, free agency, sixth-year minor-league free agents," O'Brien said.

The Reds will make a run at re-signing starter Paul Wilson. But unless there is an influx of money in the player payroll, they won't be big players on the free agent market beyond that.

That means the young arms in the minors are critical to the club's success.

"We have more talent than we've had since I've been here," said player development director Tim Naehring, who has been with the Reds since 1998.

"But we're nowhere near where we want to be."

The Reds have a handful of pitchers who could help next year. Naehring mentioned Dustin Moseley, Daylan Childress, Todd Coffey and Richie Gardner.

Chris Booker and Aaron Myette also are on the cusp, but they'd have to re-sign as free agents.

Most of the prospects who are close to being ready for the big leagues are already with the team. Brandon Claussen was pitching with Louisville until July 20. Luke Hudson and Joe Valentine weren't called up until Aug. 14.

Right now, in fact, Hudson, at 27, is the oldest member of the starting rotation. And although the results don't show it, the four young pitchers in the rotation (including Aaron Harang and Josh Hancock) are coming off encouraging starts.

The most important thing a starter can do is keep his club in the game.

The Reds are 36-14 in games when they get quality starts (six innings or more; three earned runs or fewer).

In their last turns, Claussen and Hancock made quality starts. Harang and Hudson had the Reds within a run when they left the game.

"What we've seen (recently) is very encouraging," O'Brien said. "I think every loss is agonizing. (But) Claussen did an outstanding job. Joe Valentine striking out (Albert) Pujols in a playoff-type atmosphere. That kind of experience is only going to help them."

One start is not much to get excited about. But Harang has been good since he returned from the disabled list in mid-June. Claussen has shown composure in all his starts. Hudson has the best stuff in the rotation.

The sample is too small to judge Hancock, but holding St. Louis to two runs over 6 2/3 innings is pretty impressive.

The problem is what has happened after the starter leaves. The bullpen has allowed 18 runs in the last four games.

The Reds are giving their best young arms - Valentine and Ryan Wagner - a chance to pitch in high-pressure situations in hopes they will emerge as setup men for 2005.

If the Reds re-sign Wilson and the aforementioned four work out in the rotation, Jose Acevedo could be shifted to bullpen, where he has been effective.

Some of the names Naehring mentioned - Coffey, Booker and Myette - could compete for the setup role, as well.

By trading away Scott Williamson and Chris Reitsma, the Reds severely downgraded the bullpen as far as power arms.

Valentine, Coffey and Booker are all hard throwers. Others could emerge.

"We're much younger and deeper than we were," Naehring said.

LARSON TO REHAB: Brandon Larson began a rehab assignment Thursday with Triple-A Louisville. Larson has been on the disabled list since July 19 with a strained left hamstring.

E-mail jfay@enquirer.com