Tuesday, August 10, 2004

Reds should answer some questions now


Miley's uncertain status can undermine authority

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The St. Louis Cardinals are so far up on the horizon the Reds can barely see them.

The wild card? The Reds are seven games behind with six teams to jump over. A pipe dream at best.

The Reds, who open a three-game series today at Great American Ball Park with the Los Angeles Dodgers, have 51 games to play.

That's a little more than one-third of the season. They should get Ken Griffey Jr. and Barry Larkin back in the lineup today. So there's a chance they'll make a run at the wild card, but there's a better chance it's time to turn the page toward next year.

That's because there's a great deal of work to be done for the Reds to be as competitive in 2005 as they were in 2004.

Here is a look at the biggest questions the team is facing:

QUESTIONS FOR 2005
Here is a list of the big questions the Reds have to answer for 2005:

• Who is the manager? Will the Reds pick up Miley's option?

• Who is the third baseman? Another chance for Larson? Is the kid Encarnacion ready? Switch to Kearns?

• Who is the shortstop? Will Larkin return? Can Lopez step up?

• Who is going to anchor the rotation? Will Paul Wilson be brought back?

• What can be done to fix the bullpen? What players can help this bad situation?

MANAGER

Dave Miley should be the manager. But the Reds have yet to pick up his option. General manager Dan O'Brien says he'll wait until the end of the season.

For a team that is clearly building for the future that doesn't make sense. If Miley's coming back and the players know he's coming back, it gives him authority to start addressing the other questions. With the left side of infield in flux, he could, for example, go to Felipe Lopez or D'Angelo Jimenez and say, "Start taking balls at third base. We're going to consider playing you there next year."

Miley can do that now, but it gives him more authority if the players know he'll back next year.

THIRD BASE

It seems pretty clear that it won't be Brandon Larson. Given his injuries and his lack of production and age, it would seem like it's time for the Reds to cut ties.

If not Larson, who? Edwin Encarnacion is the best prospect the Reds have in the minors. His numbers at Double-A - .291, 11 homers, 63 RBI, 15 steals - indicate he is close. To that end, the Reds should call him up in September to give his a taste of the big leagues.

It's also worth having outfielder Austin Kearns take some balls over there. The Reds need to figure out a way to get Kearns and Wily Mo Pena's bat in the lineup at the same time.

SHORTSTOP

Lopez has gone a long way toward proving he's the guy. He has pop in his bat that the other candidates - Ray Olmedo and Anderson Machado - don't have.

The shortstop situation depends a lot on whether Larkin is coming back. This latest injury, which has kept him out of the lineup for two weeks, has to factor into the decision about next season.

Another factor: Do you re-sign Juan Castro? It makes sense because he is a reliable backup at third and shortstop.

ROTATION

Getting a rotation anchor is as simple as re-signing Paul Wilson. Again, O'Brien says he will wait until the end of the season.

Why do it now? The signal it would send. Wilson works as hard as anyone on the club. He leaves his heart, soul and about 10 pounds of sweat on the mound every time he pitches.

BULLPEN

This won't be easy. The relief corps struggled before the Todd Jones trade.

Right now, they have no one they can count on in the set-up role. The bullpen has a collective ERA of 5.10 and has blown 24 saves. By trading away power arms such as Scott Williamson and Chris Reitsma, the Reds have weakened what used to be a strength of the organization.

The Reds have a handful of live arms in the upper levels of the minors. Todd Coffey, Chris Booker and Luke Hudson all tore it up at Double-A. The Reds should get an indication of whether they can help next year. It's also worth seeing if Jose Acevedo can be an effective reliever.

If these guys can't do the job, the bullpen is going to have to be fixed through free agency.

Reds statistics

(Through Sunday's game)

BATTERS AVGOBAABRH2B3BHRRBIBBSOSBCSE
Casey .342.3993807213036116703323106
Larkin .300.35229353881337402534204
Dunn .279.41238374107210347181134414
Freel .279.38235945100125120516322812
Pena .268.32624632668118501779316
Lopez .265.31583132280413623007
Jimenez .258.358388511001727406166966
Griffey .253.351300497618020604467101
LaRue .246.332280356914112392174028
Cruz .241.3221081826503211031000
Castro .239.27320924501711141035006
Hummel .226.27810610244017717104
Valentin .215.2681441431715151023004
Larson .212.3041181325603141435105
Kearns .195.327871017213131630111
Vander Wal .188.21232262024111000
Romano .154.21426340013210000
Team Totals .254.337378552996319616138503427878461977
PITCHERS WLERAGGSSVIPHRERHRBBSO
Graves 143.165603557.059252010832
Wilson 934.1422220141.11496965204892
Harang 734.3118180102.1114504993780
Riedling 434.37510057.261362852632
Norton 134.89490046.048292542432
Claussen 124.9844021.222151231011
Lidle 7105.3224240149.01709588244493
Van Poppel 355.322810086.1945151131556
Acevedo 4106.3623220120.11468785233896
Wagner 216.59300028.243252141917
White 018.10210023.127212111417
Hancock 218.4972011.2181111456
Matthews 218.84220018.12319186108
Team Totals 54575.2211111136986.21108619572154362658



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