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Sunday, June 20, 2004

Don't let hot streaks or slumps fool you


Fantasy baseball

Click here to e-mail John
One of the most difficult things to do in fantasy baseball is ride out slumps. Having to sit by and watch one of your top players slog through an 0-for-35 slump while everyone else is passing you in the standings is about as enjoyable as owning Sidney Ponson.

But the bottom line, as any Derek Jeter owner can tell you, is that you have to ride it out. And on the flipside of that, you have to be careful not to put too much stock into a lesser-known player who happens to be in the midst of a hot streak.

I mention this because it seems like a lot of the e-mails I'm getting right now address one or both of those topics. Here are a few I'd like to answer this week.

Q: Would you give up a front-line pitcher such as Randy Johnson, Matt Clement or Mark Prior for Danny Graves? - Jim P.

A: This is what I'm talking about. Graves is having a career year, no doubt, with 27 saves, a 3.29 ERA and 1.10 WHIP. But let's look a little closer. Cincinnati didn't even have Graves closing last season. Instead, they stuck him in the rotation, and it was a disaster (4-15, 5.33 ERA). Yes, he got off to a great start in the bullpen in 2004, but before Thursday's game, he hadn't had a save since June 2, and in that span he'd blown a pair of saves and watched the Reds suffer through a long losing streak.

Turning around and giving up a proven fantasy superstar such as Prior or Johnson for Graves has to depend on your team's depth and needs, I suppose. But just looking at it as a straight-up deal, I wouldn't make this move if I were the one giving up Prior or the Big Unit.

Q: Would you trade Marcus Giles for Brad Wilkerson today (June 11)? I am seventh (out of eight teams) in home runs and RBI. Can Wilkerson help? Giles is on the disabled list for another month. - Brian Wilske

A: Wilkerson, who came into this week with 10 homers, five steals and 26 RBI, caught fire in late May and early June, racking up five homers and eight extra-base hits in seven games. He's capable of 25-30 homers and should approach 90 RBI and 20 steals, so he can help a fantasy squad if he plays the way he's supposed to. But he's hitting .227 and hasn't proven it over the long haul.

Trading away somebody like Giles (.339-3-18 through 32 games), who should be back in four to six weeks, would seem like a stretch to me. This is June, not September. There's still plenty of time for you to make up the ground you're losing while Giles is on the DL. I'd be patient and weather the storm, because from mid-July to the end of the season, there's little doubt Giles, not Wilkerson, will be the guy you want in your lineup.

Q: Should I drop Michael Barrett for Nick Johnson? - Ryan Turton

A: Here's another question that comes down to needs. Johnson has played only a handful of games in 2004, and so far he has looked great, hitting .292 with seven doubles, two homers and six RBI in his first 65 at-bats.

As for Barrett, he's hitting over .300 and has a chance for 25 home runs and 90-100 RBI. It comes down to where you are hurting more - catcher or first base. At first base, Johnson makes for a marginal pickup right now, while Barrett still seems like a pretty good option behind the plate. I'd stick with Barrett and keep an eye on Johnson and his teammates in Montreal for the time being.

HOT BOX

Pick him up: Jake Westbrook, sp, Indians. I dropped the ball on this one and waited too long, losing him to a rival team via waivers. Westbrook (6-2, 2.70 ERA, 1.13 WHIP) is on fire right now, coming off a complete-game shutout of the Orioles on Monday.

Sit him down: Jeff Bagwell, 1b, Astros. I bashed Jacque Jones in this space last week and he finally broke out of his lengthy slump, so we'll try the same thing with Bagwell, who is hitting a measly .186 over the past two weeks. His always-sore right shoulder has flared up, and you need to sit him until he can get going again.

Keep an eye on: Alex Sanchez, of, Tigers. All those bunt hits (25 so far) are really helping his average, which was up to a robust .341 coming into this week.

---

E-mail nemofreelance@yahoo.com




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