That's significant. Because with a new administration running the baseball operation, the Reds could have gone Moneyball and placed the emphasis on stats, not scouts.

General manager Dan O'Brien and scouting director Terry Reynolds aren't ignoring the Moneyball theory, examined in a book by Michael Lewis, which basically says you should draft college players based on their statistics and avoid drafting high school players.

"The scouts are the eyes and ears of the organization, and you must rely upon their scouting expertise," O'Brien said.

Statistics will be one element of the evaluation.

"We're going to use any and all resources that might conceivably be available in the decision-making process," O'Brien said. "And I'm certain that statistics will be one component, but not an overriding one."

This is not a change in philosophy from the Jim Bowden administration. The Reds always have relied on scouts and never shied away from high school players. But based on last year's draft, maybe they should.

The team drafted a college player with great stats in the first round, and it worked out well; Ryan Wagner was in the big leagues six weeks after the Reds picked him.

The last three high school pitchers drafted by the Reds in the first round aren't anywhere near the majors. Ty Howington (1999) and Chris Gruler (2002) are coming back from surgery. Jeremy Sowers (2001) never signed.

The other prize of the 2004 draft looks to be Richie Gardner, another college pitcher. Gardner, a sixth-round pick, is 5-2 with a 2.28 ERA at Single-A Potomac in his first year of pro ball.

The Reds pick seventh in the draft, which is June 7. Whoever they take is going to get a bonus of between $2 million and $3 million. That's a huge investment for a team that doesn't pay any of the pitchers in its starting rotation more than $2.75 million.

"Overall, the draft is pretty strong," Reynolds said. "It's deepest in pitching and right-handed pitching in particular."

That doesn't, however, mean the Reds will take a pitcher.

"We're going to take the best player available," Reynolds said. "That's not to say it won't be a pitcher. But we don't feel we have to take one."

That will be the case throughout the draft - no position will be emphasized.

"The philosophy is simply to take the best player available at the time the seventh pick comes up in every round," O'Brien said.

You also can expect a mixture of college and high school players.

"We're not limiting ourselves to a particular age of player," O'Brien said. "We're going to consider high school, college and four-year school players."

WHAT ABOUT SOWERS? Sowers, who is finishing his junior year at Vanderbilt, probably will fall around where the Reds pick.

"I'm not going to talk specifically about Sowers," Reynolds said. "But we're not excluding anyone."

Picking the same player twice worked out pretty well with Barry Larkin.

Sowers, a left-hander, is 9-5 with a 2.75 ERA for Vandy this year. He has allowed 93 hits in 111 1/3 innings. He has struck out 107 and walked only 21.

Baseball America projects Sowers going No. 6 to Cleveland. It has the Reds taking Matt Bush, a high school shortstop from El Cajon, Calif.

EASY EDWIN: Third baseman Edwin Encarnacion went 3-for-4 with two doubles for Double-A Chattanooga on Friday to raise his average to .324.

Encarnacion, obtained in the Rob Bell trade in 2001, has a .414 on-base percentage.

If Encarnacion can get more consistent in the field - he had 40 errors in 125 games last year - he could be the third baseman of the future. He has eight errors in the 31 games this year.

He's hitting that well in Double-A at 21 years old.

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E-mail jfay@enquirer.com

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