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Tuesday, May 25, 2004

Quirky statistics are in favor of the Reds



The Cincinnati Enquirer

click here to e-mail Paul

You have problems with D'Angelo Jimenez . You see his skinny little .221 batting average and his modest .335 on-base percentage and you wonder how the Reds could bat such a sorry, no-account player leadoff 33 times in 44 games. D'Angelo Jimenez, you conclude, has gotta go.

You do not know.

Jimenez leads the world in number of pitches seen. Before Monday, he was at 861, a full 23 more than his closest competitor. This is an obscure statistic, unless you study the game the way tigers study gazelles. Unless you're Bill James, who has no problem with D'Angelo Jimenez.

By watching lots of pitches, Jimenez helps wear out opposing pitchers. He gives his teammates longer looks at what the pitchers throw. He helps the team immensely while hitting .221. "I'm not afraid to get behind in the count. I'm proud of being patient,'' Jimenez said. "You can't teach that.''

I asked Bill James how the Reds could have the best record in the National League, with a team that ranked seventh in the league in runs, 13th in ERA and had struck out more often than Pee Wee Herman. I wanted to know how a club that Monday night started four guys hitting .237 or less - five if you count the pitcher Jose Acevedo - could be in first place.

The Reds are rolling with guys named Cruz, Valentin, Van Poppel and Freel. Each has been singularly spectacular, in brief spurts. But, come on.

You can't go to the players for logic. I tried. I asked Barry Larkin: "Why is this team tied for first place?''

Larkin, who has seen some baseball, does like everyone else when faced with that question: He shrugs. He throws his hands in the air. I've been throwing my hands in the air since about Wednesday. Which makes it really hard to type.

"I don't know, man,'' said Larkin. "We've won more games than anyone in the division?''

Players don't think about stuff like this. For baseball players, thinking is like drinking. A little is fine. Too much is dangerous. As the baseball savant Crash Davis suggested to Nuke LaLoosh, "Don't think so much, Meat. You'll hurt the ballclub.''

"Hopefully, we won't figure it out,'' was Larkin's version.

Bill James offers a clue. James is baseball's reigning sabermetrician, whose adherence to quirky statistics has made him a prophet to some teams and a pariah to others. He's currently employed by the Boston Red Sox and lamented by any number of traditional Baseball Men.

Given time and a PC, James could interpret your efficiency at the grocery store: Excellent time management in the meat department, not enough patience on the canned food aisle.

"Where are they in runs allowed?'' James wondered.

Uh, 12th. The Reds have scored 211, allowed 211.

"The statistic most consistently associated with winning, beyond the obvious runs scored and allowed, is on-base percentage,'' James said.

The Reds are fourth in the league in OBP. Now we're getting somewhere. James is a big fan of Adam Dunn and Sean Casey. Dunn ranks third in on-base; Casey is sixth.. "The difference between what Dunn did last year and what he's doing now is enough to move the team up a couple spots in the standings,'' James said.

He dismisses the Reds' hitters tendency to flail. They lead the league in walks, by a big margin. "Players who strike out a lot tend to walk more and hit more homers. The positive value of walks and homers outweighs the negative of the strikeouts,'' James said. He also notes that Reds' pitchers are second in the NL in fewest walks allowed, and the bullpen has been steady at worst.

Essentially, James says the Reds are winning because their pitchers are throwing strikes and their hitters are hitting them. And because the maligned D'Angelo Jimenez, whose walks are second on the team and who has seen more pitches than anyone, knows the value of patience and getting on base.

Is that the best explanation for what's happening here? Beats me. You have a better one?

E-mail pdaugherty@enquirer.com




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