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Monday, March 29, 2004

Reds e-mail Q&A



click here to e-mail John
E-mailers don't like the Chris Reitsma trade one bit.

The missive below is representative. Read on:

Question from Jeff in Morton Grove, Ill.: With the arrival of Dan O'Brien I thought the fire sale mentality was over. Chris Reitsma should have made the major league staff last spring, not Jimmy Anderson or Josias Manzanillo. His velocity was up and he seemed much improved after returning from Louisville.

I was in Milwaukee a couple of season ago for his complete game shutout -- the only one for the entire staff in 2002, I believe. This season he could have been an innings horse, insurance for either Danny Graves or Ryan Wagner. The onus is now on Todd Jones and Todd Van Poppel to regain their form or retire.

The Reds have been duped into taking on Braves prospects. Remember Rob Bell? How well did Matt Belisle do this spring? Jim Bowden made a habit of collecting prospect outfielders. Hopefully the new regime will have better results with their assembly of young arms. I'm sure the Braves will have more young pitchers to dangle before O'Brien when John Smoltz breaks down and Danny Graves seems expendable. The way to reverse this cycle is to offer big free agent money to a veteran starter. Until then the revolving door will continue and the crowds at Great American Ball Park will thin out.

A: The Reitsma trade and the Scott Williamson trade are perplexing. The Reds gave up good young arms for prospects - the two hardest throwers on staff in fact. When you're trading proven pitchers for unproven pitchers who are only two or three years younger, it's hard to explain it as anything but a salary dump. When constantly trying to build for the future, what does it say for the present?

Q, from Lucas in Columbus: Is Ryan Wagner the real deal or is it just too early to tell? I have never put much stock in spring stats, but I have to admit the kid is lighting it up. I am also impressed with his composure and maturity and the fact that he seems to understand his role on the team.

A: Last year's results are more impressive than the spring stats, because they came in real games. It's pretty clear when Wagner's slider is working, he's nearly impossible to hit.

Q, from Nate at Purdue U.: Do you think the Reds should sign Fernando Tatis, who was released by Tampa Bay on Tuesday? I think he could turn out to be the player he was with St. Louis a couple years back after some time with Chris Chambliss. And, unlike Brandon Larson, Tatis has had some amount of success at the Major League level. He would probably make a smart minor league transaction for the third-baseman-less Reds.

A: I asked a front office employee about Tatis. He said check Tatis' recent stats and injury history. That's a long way of saying no. But I agree he or another veteran third baseman is probably worth a flyer - particularly given Larson's injury history.

Q, from William in Cincinnati: I have a few observations after reading your report that the Reds made $2.5 million last year and lost $27 million from 2000-2002.

When you factor in that the Reds count the $6.5 million of Griffey's deferred salary as an expense, yet keep the money, that ups the profit to $9 million right away.

In 2001, the middle year of the supposed three-year loss of $27 million, MLB reported the Reds as making a profit of $2.3 million to Congress. Forbes reported the Reds as having a profit of $4.3 million. Again, once you factor in Griffey's deferred salary, there's a profit of $8.8 to $10.8 million. The reported profit doesn't even tell you how much Lindner is paying himself or the other limited partners.

So, for all the claims of losing $12 million and crying poor as the reason for trading Aaron Boone and company, the Reds make money year after year. What's it going to take for the Reds to stop lying to us?

A: They're a private business so they don't have to open their books. But they've created a lot of ill will among fans because they haven't been open about the budget.

I'd say a third to quarter of e-mail I get accuse the Reds of being cheap and/or less than honest with the public.

Q, from Brian: Do you really think getting rid of Ken Griffey Jr. would help the Reds in the long run? I understand trying to save payroll, but don't you think that would hurt the fan base? If Junior stays healthy, he could still be one of the greatest players out there.

A: If Griffey returns to being close to player he was, he'll sell tickets and help the club win. However, if you could trade for good young talent, the club may be better off the in long run if that talent develops. Trouble is you don't know how either is going to turn out.




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