By John Fay
The Cincinnati Enquirer

NEW ORLEANS - Judging from the offseason player moves, you would think that the National League Central standings were reversed last year.

The teams that finished one-two-three - the Chicago Cubs, Houston and St. Louis - are making moves to get better, while the teams that finished four, five and six - Pittsburgh, the Reds and Milwaukee - are standing pat.

The Cardinals' trade with the Atlanta Braves was the big announcement Saturday at the Winter Meetings here.

That didn't make Reds general manager Dan O'Brien want to go out and grab a little of the spotlight.

"We are cognizant of our competition," he said. "But we have to approach this as what is best for the Cincinnati Reds organization as we build a foundation and a base of major league players. I don't know if it directly impacts what we're trying to do."

In other words, stay the course, and try to build through player development.

Part of the reason the Reds, Brewers and Pirates have been quiet here is the disparity in payrolls. The Cubs and Cardinals are in the $80 million range. The Brewers are at $30 million. The Reds are probably in the mid-to-high $40 millions, although no one will say. Pittsburgh won't spend much, either.

It's not that bleak for the Reds. The club has more talent than Milwaukee or Pittsburgh. But most of that talent was hurt last year. So the Reds, who went 69-93 and finished fifth, are well under the radar in the Central.

"It will not surprise any of us to find out in the spring that we're not the favorite in the division," O'Brien said. "I think the biggest unknown with us is how many of our key players are healthy and able to resume playing like they are capable of. That's a significant question. That's the X factor."

But given the current make of the club, everything would have to go absolutely right for the Reds to compete with the Cubs and Astros

The Cubs, who won the Central last year, added first baseman Derrek Lee from the Florida Marlins in a trade and signed setup man LaTroy Hawkins. With that great young pitching, the Cubs likely will be the favorite in the Central again.

That could change, if the Astros, who finished second, sign pitcher Roger Clemens. Clemens is considering coming out of retirement.

"I don't know what's going to happen with that," Houston manager Jimy Williams said. "But I know we have Andy Pettitte."

Signing Pettitte, who was 21-8 with the New York Yankees last year, gives the Astros a veteran to go with their talented young starters.

The Cardinals improved their pitching by getting Jason Marquis, Ray King and top prospect Adam Wainwright from Atlanta. But they gave up a lot - outfielder J.D. Drew and catcher Eli Marrero - to get it. The Cardinals have a lot of holes.

"We have a nucleus of five (position) players," St. Louis manager Tony La Russa said. "We need a right fielder, left fielder and a second baseman. You don't need an All-Star at every position."

The Reds, Pirates and Brewers have been wall flowers so far at baseball's big winter party - part of that is by design.

"We haven't had a chance to dance yet," said Pittsburgh manager Lloyd McClendon. "But you have to be patient as things work out. It worked out well last year for us to wait."

The Pirates signed Reggie Sanders, Kenny Lofton and Matt Stairs for under $3 million total last year.

A lot of people around baseball expect the price of free agents to drop next week when teams can non-tender arbitration eligible players.

"We were looking at prospective non-tender players," O'Brien said. "That's akin to looking at Tarot cards. But we're looking at a plan of action if certain players indeed become free agents."

2004 NL Central prospectus

Chicago Cubs: Traded for Derrek Lee, a first baseman with pop, and signed free agent LaTroy Hawkins, one of the best setup men in baseball. Add that to young starting pitching and the Cubbies look like the favorite to repeat.

Houston: Shocked baseball by signing Andy Pettitte away from the New York Yankees. Pettitte and Roy Oswalt make a nice 1-2 punch at the top of the rotation. Will miss Billy Wagner, who was traded to the Philadelphia Phillies.

St. Louis: The trade for Jason Marquis, Ray King and prospect Adam Wainwright improves the pitching. But the Cards need a right and left fielder.

Pittsburgh: Lost Reggie Sanders and Matt Stairs to free agency. The lineup is full of holes.

Reds: Sitting pat so far and hoping things will get better if their players stay healthy.

Milwaukee: Traded away its best player, Richie Sexson. With a $30 million payroll, the Brew Crew looks a long way from competitive.