By Scott Brown
Florida Today

The dominance of the Atlanta Braves is a surprise for some observers who predicted a down year for the National League East champs, but it may not be the biggest surprise in the National League as the season closes.

San Francisco is also running away with its division despite losing its manager, its top starting pitcher and its slugging second baseman during the offseason. But with Barry Bonds leading the way and veteran manager Felipe Alou getting the most out of his supporting cast, San Francisco has all but wrapped up the NL West.

The NL West and the NL East are the only divisions with a predictable winner. Here's a look at how things could shape up in the remaining divisions, as well as the wild-card races:

AL East

Contenders: New York Yankees, Boston Red Sox.

Key series: New York at Chic., Sept. 22-24; Baltimore at Boston, Sept. 22-25.

What to watch for: History and New York's schedule strongly suggest that Boston is playing for the wild-card berth. Sixteen of the Yankees' final 19 games are against teams with losing records, and New York is a collective 18-9 against the Tigers, Devil Rays and Orioles this season. The Red Sox have the league's most potent offense and a schedule tailor-made for a strong finish, but they are running out of time.

The pick: New York. The Yankees' schedule is too light for the Red Sox to overtake them. Since there are no more head-to-head meetings during the regular season, the Yankees are the surest thing this side of the Braves and Giants.

AL Central

Contenders: Chicago White Sox, Minnesota Twins, Kansas City Royals.

Key series: Chicago at Minnesota, Sept. 16-18; K.C. at Chicago, Sept. 19-21.

What to watch for: This looks like it's down to a two-team race. Kansas City led the division by three games in early August, but trailed Chicago by two games after Tuesday. Kansas City has nothing to lose and still has seven games against division-leading Chicago. Chicago and Minnesota had five games left against one another going into Wednesday and just two games separated the hottest teams in baseball since the All-Star break.

The pick: The Twins. Chicago's remaining games are against teams with winning records, while Minnesota has a closing schedule that includes 13 games against Cleveland and Detroit.

AL West

Contenders: Oakland A's, Seattle Mariners.

Key series: Seattle at Oakland, Sept. 19-21; Oakland at Seattle, Sept. 26-28.

What to watch for: The A's have the lead and, more importantly, the mojo. Oakland's second-half surge has left Seattle in danger of missing the playoffs altogether. Neither team has a schedule advantage and they meet six times during the final two weeks of the season. As Ichiro goes, so go the Mariners, who will desperately need their catalyst to get hot down the stretch.

The pick: Oakland. A recent rough stretch by the A's gave the Mariners an opening, but they couldn't exploit it. The teams have played each other even -Seattle leads the season series 7-6 - and a split in their final six games won't be enough for the Mariners.

NL Central

Contenders: Chicago Cubs, Houston Astros, St. Louis Cardinals.

Key series: St. Louis at Houston, today; Houston at St. Louis, Sept. 19-21.

What to watch for: It might be easier to predict the governor's recall race in California. The Cardinals are a team you expect to flex its muscles and finally take control of this thing. Houston is just kind of blah compared with the others - hard to get excited about a team whose strength is relief pitching - and Chicago is the undersized underdog.

The pick: The Cubs. Their favorable schedule and Dusty Baker's magic - the best starting pitching of the three teams - add up to a division title.

AL wild card

Contenders: Boston, Seattle.

Key series: Chicago at Boston, today;

Seattle at Texas, Sept. 15-18.

What to watch for: Seattle finishes the season against AL West rivals. The Mariners have fared well against division foes, but the Red Sox clearly have the easier schedule. Of course, Boston had won just three of eight against Baltimore going into Wednesday, so five more games against the Orioles don't exactly look like a blessing. This race could come down to which team fares better down the stretch: Seattle's slumbering offense or Boston's flammable bullpen.

The pick: Boston. Seattle's stumble to the finish line overshadows an otherwise fine season.

NL wild card

Contenders: Florida Marlins, Philadelphia Phillies, Los Angeles Dodgers, Houston Astros, St. Louis Cardinals.

Key series: Florida at Philadelphia, Sept. 16-18; Philadelphia at Florida, Sept. 23-25; San Francisco at Los Angeles, Sept. 19-21; San Francisco at Houston, Sept. 22-24.

What to watch for: A couple of weeks ago, more than half of the NL's teams could call themselves players in this race. Assuming the two teams that don't win the NL Central won't have played well enough to capture the wild card, it is down to the Marlins, Phillies and Dodgers battling for one playoff berth.

The pick: Marlins. Of the three, their schedule is the most favorable. They've been one of baseball's best teams since the middle of May and they believe in themselves. Sounds like a winning combination.

HOT CORNER

Josh Beckett, Marlins: While rookie Dontrelle Willis received a lot of well-deserved publicity this season, it has been Beckett, not the slumping Willis, who has led the red-hot Marlins down the stretch in the wild-card race. He has won two straight decisions and really hasn't had a clunker since a six-inning, six-run loss to the Cubs on July 7.

David Ortiz, Red Sox: One of the free-agent bargains of the offseason, the 1B/DH is closing in on 100 RBI and is sporting a .961 OPS. Not bad for a guy who was nontendered by the Minnesota Twins, who could really use him to fight off the White Sox.

Bobby Cox, Braves: Like his club, manager Bobby Cox is aging a little, but still has some fire. For instance, on Thursday against the Phillies, Cox was ejected for the ninth time this season.

NOT-SO-HOT CORNER

Defrocked closers: Does it seem to you a lot of closers have pitched themselves into a setup role (or worse) this season? To name a few: Mike MacDougal (Royals); Danys Baez (Indians); Bill Koch (White Sox); Jose Mesa (Phillies); Cast of thousands (Red Sox).

LINE O' THE WEEK

Toronto	IP	H	R	ER	BB	SO	NP	ERA
Halladay W, 20-6	9	5	1	0	2	3	93	3.30

Blue Jays ace Roy Halladay became the majors' first 20-game winner this season in style on Thursday - by tossing a five-hitter against the Tampa Bay Devil Rays. Halladay has seven complete games this year, including his past three starts. Roger Clemens was the last Blue Jays pitcher with three consecutive complete games, doing it in August 1998.