By John Fay
The Cincinnati Enquirer

PHOTO GALLERY

Photos of Tuesday's game

Reds assistant general manager Brad Kullman said it with a straight face.

"We're moving forward," he said. "We've got a good group of young players. We can be a factor in the NL Central next year. I really believe that."

Give him credit for selling the company line.

But unless Kullman knows something he's not telling us, it's difficult to imagine how the Reds will compete for the National League Central title in 2004.

The club the Reds ran out on the field Tuesday had a $20 million payroll. And $20 million teams don't compete in the $100 million world.

The Reds do have 11 players on the disabled list. Five of them - Ken Griffey Jr., Austin Kearns, Adam Dunn, Barry Larkin and Brandon Larson - are starters.

Griffey, Dunn and Kearns will be back next year. The status of Larson and Larkin isn't certain. And even with Griffey, Dunn and Kearns, the Reds are a team with huge questions marks for next year.

• Who's going to play third base?

• Who's going to play shortstop?

• Who's going to be in the rotation?

• Who's going to be in the bullpen?

The Reds could answer those questions through free agency. But that leads to the biggest question of all:

What's the payroll going to be for next year?

The Reds could bring back the current roster, including players on the DL, for less than $40 million. If the payroll is $57 million, as it was when this year started, Kullman's right - the Reds can compete for the NL Central. That probably would be true at even $50 million.

But if the Reds anticipate a drop in attendance and decide to keep the payroll at $40 million, their chances of winning the NL Central are the same as Bud Selig's chances of being elected president of the Pete Rose fan club.

So what is the 2004 payroll going to be? "It's an involved process," Reds chief operating officer John Allen said. "The moves we've made over the last three weeks give us flexibility."

Allen said he doesn't see the Reds being major players on the free agent market.

"I see us looking at it," Allen said. "It's impossible to predict. A lot of internal and external factors come into play."

This year's payroll was based on attendance projections of 2.6 million. When it became clear the Reds would fall short, players making relatively big money were jettisoned.

Cincinnati fans love a winner and ignore a loser, and they are not big on buying into long-range plans. All of the trades already are showing up in attendance. Monday's crowd of 18,411 was the smallest of the year.

Kullman, who along with fellow assistant general manager Leland Maddox has been running the baseball operations, said there won't be any more major moves.

"We've got a solid group of players," Kullman said. "They have five weeks together to develop as a core."

Since July 29, the Reds have traded six players and let one go via waivers.

The trades all sent out veterans and brought in prospects. The moves were designed to improve the pitching for the future.

But only one of the eight pitchers obtained in the trades - Aaron Harang - is on the current roster.

Joe Valentine's brief stay with the Reds showed being a top prospect and being successful in the majors are two entirely different things. Valentine gave up four runs over two innings and was promptly sent back to Triple-A Louisville.

Valentine, Harang and Brandon Claussen figure to be in the mix for next year.

But right now, the Reds are operating with a makeshift pitching staff. Two of the five starters were released by other teams earlier in the year. Nine of the 12 pitchers on the roster spent time in the minors this year. That's not the kind of staff that is a year away from making a playoff run.

---

E-mail jfay@enquirer.com