By John Fay
The Cincinnati Enquirer
PITTSBURGH - By nearly any measure, the Reds are not a very good baseball team this year.
Pitching? The worst in the National League.
Fielding? They lead the majors in errors, and are last in fielding percentage.
Hitting? They lead the majors in strikeouts. The team batting average (.248) is third-worst in the NL.
They've been outscored 468-380 on the year.
So, how in the name of Abner Doubleday have the Reds avoided that long slide into oblivion, when all logic says they should be looking up at the Milwaukee Brewers?
Because from the ninth inning on, the Reds go from being the 1962 Mets to the 1927 Yankees.
"By the end of the game, if we're in it, we can win it," first baseman Sean Caseysaid.
The numbers support that. From the ninth inning on, the Reds have scored nearly twice as many runs as their opponents - 56-28.
That's led to 20 victories in which the winning run was scored in their last at-bat, nine walk-off victories and nine extra-inning wins. The Reds are tops in the majors in all three categories. They also lead the big leagues with 18 one-run wins.
The Reds went into Monday's off day with a 38-42 record.
Last year's Reds team, which won 76 games, wasn't nearly as exciting. They won 20 games in their last at-bat, and had eight walk-off wins.
Ask Reds players if they've experienced anything like this year's late show, and they'll mention the 1999 team.
But the '99 Reds weren't in the same class as the '03 Reds as far as late-inning wins. Of the 96 wins that year, 21 came in the last at-bat. Eleven were walk-off wins.
This year's Reds could surpass those numbers by the All-Star Break.
Fans have noticed. The Reds played to sold-out crowds in their last two home games against the Cubs. The final game, a 3-1 win June 19, was the first sellout of a weekday day game since at least 1960.
"(The fans are) buying into it," Casey said. "No doubt about it. You start to see not too many people leaving in the ninth inning. The crowd is sticking around."
But it's not just the number of wins; it's the fact that some have bordered on the incredible.
"In 1999, we had a lot of wild finishes," Casey said. "But this year, it's been unbelievable. It's been, 'Wow, how'd we do that. How'd we pull that one off?' "
Take, for instance, a five-day period in May.
On May 5, the Reds blew a 4-0 lead to the St. Louis Cardinals at Great American Ball Park, but Aaron Boone won the game with a solo home run in the ninth.
One night later, the Reds trailed the Cardinals 5-4 going into the ninth inning. With one out, Juan Castro singled. Barry Larkin, who had just been re-activated from the disabled list and hadn't played in almost three weeks, was sent up to pinch-hit. He promptly launched a two-run home run to win the game.
Three days later, at home against Milwaukee, the Reds topped those two. Trailing the Brewers 5-3 in the ninth inning, the Reds tied the game, only to fall behind 6-5 in the 10th. But Jose Guillen won it with a two-run homer.
"It's not like we've just come back from one down," Adam Dunn said. "We've come back from three or four. I think everyone knows that we're capable of scoring a lot of runs. I don't think we're ever out of it."
They proved that June 7. The Reds went into the ninth down 8-5 to Toronto. Jason LaRue tied the game with a three-run homer. Casey won it with an RBI single.
"That was the Mount Everest of comebacks," Casey said.
And comebacks breed more comebacks.
"You keep doing it, it builds your confidence that you can do it," Casey said. "Whoever leads off the ninth or eighth says, "Let's get it going. We've done it before - a few times - why can't we do it again.'"
To come from behind and win takes power at the plate and the ability to deal with pressure.
"So far, we've been pretty good in clutch or pressure situations, which isn't always easy," Boone said. "It's fair to say we've been very good in that area."
Home runs have played a part in 12 of the 20 last-at-bat wins.
"I think we have the kind of team that is capable of putting up a lot of runs," Dunn said.
The late-inning drama is the good news. The bad news is the Reds often need the fantastic finishes to win. There aren't many routine victories.
And while the '03 Reds may resemble the '99 Reds, which came from behind to win 45 times, the verdict's still out on one important statistic.
"That team won 96 games," Boone said. "We're not there yet."
Last at-bat wins
April 4, at home, Reds 10, Cubs 9: Winning run scores in bottom of the eighth on Barry Larkin's RBI single.
April 6, at home, Reds 5, Cubs 4: Overcome 4-0 first-inning deficit against Kerry Wood. Sean Casey's solo shot wins it in the eighth.
April 8, Minute Maid Park, Reds 2, Astros 1: Win on Jason LaRue's solo homer in the 10th.
April 11, at home, Reds 7, Phillies 6: Austin Kearns' two-run homer first walk-off win.
April 20, Puerto Rico, Reds 7, Expos 5: Adam Dunn and Felipe Lopez hit solo shots in the ninth.
April 24, at home, Reds 3, Dodgers 2: Reggie Taylor singles home winner in 11th.
April 26, at home, Reds 7, Padres 6: Blow 3-0 lead, win on Ruben Mateo's bases-loaded walk in the 10th.
May 5, at home, Reds 5, Cardinals 4: Blow 4-0 lead. Win on Aaron Boone's solo homer.
May 6, at home, Reds 6, Cardinals 5: Win on Larkin's pinch-hit, two-run homer in his first at-bat back from the DL.
May 9, at home, Reds 7, Brewers 6: Win on Guillen's two-run homer in the 10th after tying it in the ninth.
May 18, Miller Park, Reds 6, Brewers 3: Win on Kearns' RBI single, Boone's two-run homer in the ninth.
May 20, at home, Reds 9, Braves 8: Win on LaRue's two-run homer in the eighth.
May 26, Turner Field, Reds 7, Braves 6: Win on Dunn's pinch-hit grand slam in the 11th.
May 30, Pro Player Stadium, Reds 4, Marlins 3: Ken Griffey Jr. hits game-winning homer in the 11th after hitting game-tying homer in the ninth.
June 3, at home, Reds 4, Yankees 3: Juan Castro's two-out RBI single wins it.
June 7, at home, Reds 9, Blue Jays 8: LaRue hits a three-run homer to tie it; Casey singles home winning run.
June 11, Tropicana Field, Reds 7, Devil Rays 6: Boone's single with two outs in the ninth provides winner.
June 17, at home, Reds 2, Cubs 1: Casey's two-out double into the gap wins it.
June 24, Busch Stadium, Reds 7, Cardinals 4: Kelly Stinnett's two-run double is big blow in three-run 14th.
June 28, Jacobs Field, Reds 5, Indians 4: Russell Branyan ties it; Ray Olmedo delivers game-winning hit.
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