Enquirer Reds writer John Fay provides an inside look at how the club is shaping up in 2003.

Five reasons the Reds will contend:

Ken Griffey Jr. anchors a Reds lineup that should be potent. The Associated Press file photo

• Ken Griffey Jr.: He's healthy and happy, and in this year's spring training he has looked like the Griffey of mid-'90s. That should translate into 40-plus home runs and 120-plus RBI.

• The starting pitching is better: Ryan Dempster finally looks like the guy the Reds thought they were getting when they traded for him in July. Jimmy Haynes and Paul Wilson will provide consistent innings. And Danny Graves' shift from closer to starter will be a successful experiment.

• Felipe Lopez: The change of scenery that came with his trade from Toronto seems to be just what he needed. He adds speed and defense, and the ball jumps off his bat. He'll get plenty of time at shortstop and third base, and is a good insurance policy if an infielder gets hurt.

• Arms, arms, arms: The Reds seem to have done very well with their non-roster signings. Jimmy Anderson, Pete Harnisch, Josias Manzanillo, Kent Mercker and Felix Heredia all seem to be keepers.

• Law of averages: All the karma went against the Reds last year - injuries, off years - so their luck ought to be better this season.

Five reasons the Reds won't contend:

•No proven No. 1 starter: The Reds don't have anyone like Roy Oswalt, Kerry Wood or Mike Morris on the staff. That makes it hard to compete with Houston, Chicago and St. Louis in the National League Central.

• No true leadoff hitter: Barry Larkin will be used in the leadoff role, but he has stolen only 30 bases over the last three seasons and is coming off two sub-par years at the plate. Felipe Lopez, who will play when Larkin doesn't, has a total of 459 big-league at-bats.

• Too many unproven players: Adam Dunn, Austin Kearns, Brandon Larson and Lopez all have less than two full seasons in the big leagues. That's an awful lot of young players in big roles.

• The bench: The Reds' reserves have little pop and there is no proven pinch-hitter. Ruben Mateo and Wily Mo Pena, two of the key extra players, have little major-league experience.

• Can't beat the good teams: The Reds like to point out that they spent 121 days in first or second place last season and were 21/2 games out of the top spot on Aug. 11. But they fell flat on their faces as soon as they had a long stretch against good teams, and went 24-51 overall against teams with records of better than .500.

Fan favorite Adam Dunn must overcome the second-half slump he suffered last season. The Cincinnati Enquirer/ JEFF SWINGER

The lineup:

The lineup is full of hitters best suited for spots Nos. 3 through 6. Barry Larkin will lead off and Aaron Boone will bat second. Both have good speed, but Larkin's best base-stealing days are behind him. Boone struck out 111 times last year - not what you want from a No. 2 hitter. It's hard to argue with the Nos. 3 through 7 hitters. Ken Griffey. Jr., Austin Kearns, Adam Dunn, Sean Casey and Brandon Larson all have good power potential and can hit for average. If Griffey is the Griffey of old, the hitters behind him should be better. Casey in the sixth spot shows the potential of the lineup; he frequently hit third for '99 team that won 96 games. Jason LaRue, who will hit in the eighth spot, hasn't hit for average (.239 career) but has good power.

Reds catcher Jason LaRue and backup Kelly Stinnett provide strong defense behind the plate. The Cincinnati Enquirer/ JEFF SWINGER

Defense

The Reds have two players who have won Gold Gloves - Barry Larkin and Ken Griffey. Jr. Austin Kearns is capable of winning one in right field. But there are question marks. Third baseman Brandon Larson has played only 37 games in the majors, and second baseman Aaron Boone is at new position. The Reds think Boone will be an upgrade over Todd Walker as far as range, but he has looked a little slow turning the double play. Jason LaRue throws with the best catchers in baseball, but he has to improve as a receiver after leading the majors with 20 passed balls last season.

There was little to smile about for Ryan Dempster until the right-hander pitched well in September. The Cincinnati Enquirer/ JEFF SWINGER

Starting rotation

Put Bartolo Colon in the No. 1 spot and you might have the best rotation in the National League Central. But that deal didn't happen. The rotation will be good if Jimmy Haynes repeats last year's success, Ryan Dempster returns to his 2000-01 form, Danny Graves makes the successful transition from closer to starter and Paul Wilson breaks through this season the way Haynes did last year. A lot of ifs, eh? True. But last year, the Opening Day starter was a non-roster invitee (Joey Hamilton), so overall there are fewer questions about this group. No. 5 starter candidate Jimmy Anderson is pitching well and that also helps.

Scott Williamson was strong down the stretch last season as the Reds closer. The Associated Press file photo

Bullpen

It again has the chance to be the strength of the club, but that all rests on Scott Williamson being good as the closer. Williamson certainly has the stuff to do it - 193 hits and 327 strikeouts in 280 career innings. If Scott Sullivan and Gabe White are healthy, the setup corps will be outstanding. John Riedling has closer-type stuff. Non-roster lefties Kent Mercker and Felix Heredia would complement White nicely. Non-roster right-hander Josias Manzanillo has been the best pitcher in camp this year.

Bench

Felipe Lopez is the key here. If he's as good as he has been in spring training, he'll be a huge boost with his ability to run and play spectacular defense. Reggie Taylor is a solid No. 4 outfielder and Juan Castro provides good defense. Wily Mo Pena could help if he takes a cue from Taylor and develops his game despite playing sparingly.