By John Fay
The Cincinnati Enquirer

Reds manager Bob Boone talks with reporters at the baseball winter meetings in Nashville, Tenn. (AP photo) | ZOOM |

NASHVILLE, Tenn. - When the Reds' brain trust finally emerged from the climate-controlled Opryland Hotel and got outside after four days of winter meetings, it was a spring-like day - in the high 50s with the sun peaking through the clouds.

It was a reminder that spring training isn't all that far away - 58 days, in fact.

It's fair to say the Reds' front office officials will go to Sarasota, Fla., feeling optimistic. The Reds certainly didn't win the National League Central at the winter meetings - Greg Maddux or Bartolo Colon won't likely be wearing red on Opening Day - but the Reds certainly didn't lose it.

That's largely because the revenues from Great American Ball Park help level the playing field.

"Our payroll is very, very competitive with the other teams in our division," Reds general manager Jim Bowden.

The Reds made only one deal at the winter meetings, swapping right-hander Elmer Dessens for middle infielder Felipe Lopez in a four-way trade.

But the Reds aren't finished tinkering. They have talked about moving right-hander Scott Sullivan and/or left-hander Gabe White to free up payroll.

But it's unlikely we'll see any blockbuster.

And that doesn't sit well with Joe Q. Fan.

Because, on the surface, the winter meetings looked pretty bleak for the 2003 Reds. They lost their ERA leader (Dessens) and leading hitter (second baseman Todd Walker) to trades and got only prospects in return.

But the Reds were prepared to lose more veterans. An unexpected late bump in payroll - from $50 to $55 million to the $60 million range - meant the Reds didn't have to dismantle the core of their lineup.

It looks as if first baseman Sean Casey and outfielder Ken Griffey will be in the Opening Day lineup. That wasn't a given if the payroll was, say, $55 million.

"We've got a chance to be very good," Reds manager Bob Boone.

Good enough to win the Central? Sure. But the Reds will need Griffey to be Griffey again. They'll need Casey and shortstop Barry Larkin to bounce back from bad seasons. They'll need outfielder Adam Dunn to play well all year. He hit only .190 after the All-Star break.

They'll need a young pitcher or two to emerge. They'll need to stay healthy.

That sounds like asking for a lot, right? It is.

The Reds finished 19 games behind St. Louis last season, and the Cardinals added two starting pitchers at the winter meetings.

So the Reds are a long shot to beat St. Louis. But a long shot is a shot. Remember, the Reds were 2‡ games out in mid-August before they collapsed.

Their 2003 Opening Day lineup looks to be the same as last season, except in two spots. Austin Kearns will be in right, instead of Juan Encarnacion, and Walker won't be at second base.

Who will be at second is the key question this spring.

Boone said four players will be in the mix at second, third and shortstop. That offers a lot of possibilities.

The Reds could put Lopez or Brandon Larson at second. They could move Aaron Boone to second and start Larson at third. They could put Barry Larkin at second, Boone at short and Larson at third.

Or it could be Larkin at second, Lopez at short and Boone at third.

The choice might be speed and defense (Lopez) versus power (Larson).

"We think Larson can hit 40 home runs," Boone said. "You want to get that bat in the lineup."

Said Reds scout Al Goldis: "Lopez can be an All-Star second baseman. He's very good."

Even with the uncertainty surrounding the second-base situation, the Reds are confident they'll score enough runs to win.

They felt that way last season, too. But the offense struggled. Injuries to Griffey, Casey and Kearns played into that.

"If we're healthy, our offense will put up the numbers," Boone said.

You can't say that authoritatively about the Reds' pitching. They could, but it depends on how pitchers adjust to new roles and how quickly some of them grow up.

The Reds felt they could move Dessens as soon as they signed right-hander Jimmy Haynes.

Haynes went 15-10 last season - his best ever. Haynes, Ryan Dempster and converted closer Danny Graves give the Reds what they feel are three solid starters.

Bruce Chen, Seth Etherton, Luke Hudson and possibly Chris Reitsma will be in the mix for the fourth and fifth spots. Young pitchers like Bobby Basham, Josh Hall, Ricardo Aramboles or Ty Howington could conceivably make the club out of spring training.

"We're finally going to see that pitching we've been talking about," Bowden said.

If that pitching is as good as the Reds think, the spring forecast might be fairly bright.

E-mail jfay@enquirer.com

A peek at 2003

Position players

The Reds' projected lineup, post-winter meetings, looks a lot like last season's:

1. Barry Larkin	SS
2. Aaron Boone	3B
3. Ken Griffey	CF
4. Austin Kearns	RF
5. Adam Dunn	LF
6. Sean Casey	1B
7. Jason LaRue	C
8. Lopez/Larson	2B

Skinny: Obviously, all this revolves around who's on second. Larson could end up at third and Larkin or Boone at second. The other big question is leadoff. Larkin is the only choice right now.

Pitchers

The starting rotation is a lot less clear than the starting eight:

Locks
Jimmy Haynes
Ryan Dempster
Danny Graves
In the running
Seth Etherton
Bruce Chen
Chris Reitsma
Jose Acevedo
Luke Hudson
Long shots
Ricardo Aramboles
Bobby Basham
Josh Hall
Dustin Moseley
Ty Howington

Skinny: Etherton is the wild card in this race. He's been hurt since the Reds got him, but he's looked good lately. The Reds might be willing to take a flyer on the young pitcher who is the best in the spring.