Sunday, September 29, 2002
Ballpark could build up Reds
But more work is needed to make them contenders
By John Fay jfay@enquirer.com
The Cincinnati Enquirer
Remember all the campaigning for a tax levy that got the stadiums built? The line was, the Reds and the Bengals needed new stadiums to be able to compete.
As we've learned since Paul Brown Stadium opened, being able to compete and actually competing are two very different things.
Great American Ball Park, which will open in 2003, will be a bigger boost to the Reds than Paul Brown Stadium was to the Bengals, because baseball teams rely more on local revenue than NFL teams do.
How much of a boost, the Reds aren't saying.
“I'm not going to comment on budget issues,” Reds general manager Jim Bowden said.
John Allen, the Reds' chief operating officer, is still crunching the numbers
“We won't have a final number until at least November,” Allen said.
But we can surmise this: The additional money alone won't be enough to get the Reds into the playoffs for the first time since 1995.
But if Ken Griffey Jr., Sean Casey and Scott Sullivan return as their healthy, productive selves ... if Danny Graves wins 12 to 15 games in his new role ... if Scott Williamson develops into a reliable closer .... if Adam Dunn plays the way he did in the first half all year ... if Austin Kearns continues to develop ... the bump in payroll might get the Reds back to playing in October.
The guess is, the Reds' player payroll will go from $45 million now to $55 million to $60 million in 2003. That would put them between the Milwaukee Brewers and the Houston Astros ... and about $70 million behind the New York Yankees.
The money from the new stadium won't instantly vault the Reds from third place in the National League Central to World Series contenders. Still, the influx of money will help. The Reds won't go into this offseason forced to trade players just to meet the budget, which was the case last year with Dmitri Young and Pokey Reese.
A lot of the added money will be eaten up by the arbitration system. The Reds have 10 arbitration-eligible players. A few ... Graves, Aaron Boone, Elmer Dessens ... will get huge raises.
The Reds might be able to bring back a Jimmy Haynes and a Joey Hamilton or sign a midlevel free agent. But there's almost no chance they can land Greg Maddux or Tommy Glavine, the top potential free agent pitchers.
How much help the Reds will be able to add is unclear.
“What the market for free agents is determines that,” Bowden said.
How the new collective bargaining agreement affects the market also will be a huge factor.
The Reds have five potential free agent pitchers on the roster - Haynes, Hamilton, Shawn Estes, Brian Moehler and Jose Rijo.
“We certainly have interest in bringing (Haynes) back,” Bowden said. “We signed him for $500,000. He's won 15 games. We're pleased with his performance.”
And the others?
“We're going to have some interest in some of our free agents, and we're not going to have interest in others,” Bowden said.
The last two or three weeks have done a lot to ease the minds of the Reds brass about the rotation.
It wasn't long ago that only Dessens was guaranteed a spot in the 2003 rotation. Now, Graves and Ryan Dempster are virtual locks.
“We're very encouraged with (Dempster),” Reds manager Bob Boone said. “He's bitten into (coach Don Gullett's) and my pitching philosophy.
“Danny makes it look so easy. He's so pitch-efficient. I think he can be a terrific starter.”
If the Reds re-sign Haynes, that would give them four reliable starters. Last year, they needed an open tryout to fill the spots behind Dessens.
The Reds go into the new stadium in a position of relative strength. Unlike Milwaukee and Pittsburgh, the two NL Central teams that opened stadiums in 2001, the Reds don't need a major infusion of talent to be competitive.
The Reds spent 57 days in first place and 64 in second place this season. They have a core of young, talented players - key for a team with a payroll of less than $80 million.
The Reds had won 12 more games in 2002 than in 2001, going into the final series of the season in Montreal. A similar improvement in 2003 would take them to 90 wins.
Though 2002 marks the seventh straight year the Reds failed to make the playoffs, Bowden doesn't look at it as a lost season.
“I'm pleased,” he said. “Obviously, the won-lost record will be improved. ... Aaron Boone started to come into his own. He's one of the top two or three third basemen in our league. Austin Kearns has proved he can play up here. I think Adam Dunn has another year under his belt, where he's had 25 home runs and 70 RBI. With Kearns and Dunn and Boone and Casey and Griffey, we certainly have a real good core nucleus to build around.
“The pitching staff with Dessens, Haynes - if we can re-sign him - and Dempster and Graves, Williamson, (John) Riedling, (Gabe) White and Sullivan - to name a few - has a pretty good core on which to build upon if we can get healthy and add to that group.”
The health question is a huge one. The Reds lost their best power hitter (Griffey) for most of the season. Their best hitter (Casey) played hurt for most of the season. Their top setup man (Sullivan) had his worst season because of injuries. And their top starter (Dessens) hasn't won a game since suffering a groin strain July 27.
So much last offseason was made of the need to improve the starting pitching. But the Reds fell out of contention this year because of offensive failures.
In a 23-game stretch that included 20 games against the Arizona Diamondbacks, the Cardinals and the Astros, the Reds averaged just more than three runs a game. They went 6-17 in that stretch, going from 2 1/2
games out of the NL Central lead to 11 games out.
“We really didn't hit all year,” manager Boone said.
Bowden blames some of the offensive woes on the injuries to Griffey, Casey and Kearns.
“A lot of runs we were supposed to score weren't scored because people were on the disabled list or playing hurt,” Bowden said. “Does that mean we think the offense is fine? No. Are we looking for ways to improve it? Yes.”
Contracts lock the Reds in as far as the starting eight. Griffey, Barry Larkin, Casey and Todd Walker are under contract for next year. Jason LaRue, Kearns, Dunn and Boone appear set, too.
Bowden won't say for certain that the starting eight will remain the same for Opening Day 2003.
“I think we're always trying to improve our team,” Bowden said. “If we can improve our team, we'll do something.”
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Ballpark could build up Reds
