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Tuesday, August 27, 2002

Reds on ropes, needing wins vs. Cardinals


Next 7 games with St. Louis make-or-break

By John Fay, jfay@enquirer.com
The Cincinnati Enquirer

[img]
Barry Larkin is, like most of the Reds, slumping at the plate lately.
(AP photo)
| ZOOM |
        This isn't how the Reds wanted to come into their seven-game showdown with the St. Louis Cardinals.

        The 13-game debacle in which the Reds went 3-10 has put Cincinnati in a position where it can't afford to lose more than one — maybe two — of the seven games with the Cardinals.

        “We are where we are,” Reds shortstop Barry Larkin said. “We've been in a tight spot for a while. Time is diminishing. We have to beat the teams we're playing, and we haven't done that.”

        The Reds lost two of three to the Houston Astros over the weekend, but the real disaster was losing all six to the world champion Arizona Diamondbacks. That allowed the Astros and Cardinals to open up some significant space in the National League Central.

        The Reds go into today's doubleheader with the Cardinals 7 ½ games behind first-place St. Louis and 4 ½ games behind second-place Houston.

        The reason the Reds are so far behind is the failure of their offense. The Reds averaged 3.38 runs per game in the aforementioned 13 games. In the 10 losses, they averaged 2.4 runs.

        Some of that is from facing good pitching. The Reds faced Randy Johnson (twice), Curt Schilling, Roy Oswalt and Wade Miller (twice). That's six games against pitchers with a combined record of 66-17.

SLUMPING REDS
    The Reds are in a team-wide offensive funk. Only outfielder Austin Kearns, who is 20-for-47 (.426), is on any kind of roll. The rest are sliding:
    Aaron Boone: 8-for-47, .170
    R.Branyan: 0-for-22, .000
    Sean Casey: 6-for-38, .158
    Adam Dunn: 5-for-46, .109
    Ken Griffey Jr.: 0-for-8, .000
    Barry Larkin: 6-for-43 .140
    Jason LaRue: 6-for-31, .194
    Kelly Stinnett: 4-for-31, .129
    Reggie Taylor: 4-for-20, .200
    Todd Walker: 11-for-53, .208
        But they also faced Rick Helling, Brian Anderson, Miguel Batista, Dave Mlicki, Pete Munro and Kirk Saarloos in that span, and they didn't hit them either. In the 13 games, the Reds scored more than five runs once.

        Reds manager Bob Boone has said since spring training that at the end of the year, the offensive numbers would be there. General manager Jim Bowden traded for four pitchers and one position player. One of the Reds' top run producers, Juan Encarnacion, was among the players dealt.

        But the Reds clearly aren't a playoff-caliber offensive club — or haven't been to this point.

        Part of that is because of injuries. Outfielder Ken Griffey Jr.has missed more games than he has played. First baseman Sean Casey has been slowed by a shoulder problem. But a bigger part of it is that none of the veteran position players is having a good year.

        Larkin is hitting 62 points below his career average (.237, .299); third baseman Aaron Boone 38 points below (.246, .284); Casey 48 points below (.263, .311); second baseman Todd Walker seven points below (.283, .290).

        Only Boone, who has career highs in home runs and RBI, has better production numbers than expected.

        The two regulars without track records — outfielders Austin Kearns and Adam Dunn — have put up good numbers, although Dunn has slumped recently.

        Even if the Reds start to hit, they face a difficult road. Manager Bob Boone recently evoked the memory of the 1964 Philadelphia Phillies, who lost a 6 ½ game lead in nine days. The Reds have an incredibly easy September schedule: They don't play a team with a record above .500 after the Sept. 4 game with the Cardinals.

        But the Reds probably need to play well against St. Louis in these seven games to have any hope. Boone subscribed to a one-pitch-at-time philosophy, but the dire straits the Reds are in have even him peaking ahead.

        “We have to beat the Cardinals, and we have to beat them pretty good,” Boone said. “I'm not saying we have to win every game, but we have to win more than we have.”

        Actually, four of seven probably would only cut the Cards' lead to 6 ½ games, depending on what happens in the Reds' three games with the Milwaukee Brewers and the Cardinals' four games with the Chicago Cubs between the two St. Louis-Cincinnati series.

        Regardless of what happens against St. Louis, the Reds will need help. Remember, they are 4 ½ games behind Houston.

        “You'd like to have destiny in your hands,” Boone said. “But when you're coming from behind, that doesn't happen.”

        The Reds have played the Cardinals well recently, winning three of the last four meetings. St. Louis is also vulnerable. The Cardinals' top pitcher, right-hander Matt Morris, just went on the disabled list. Two of the four pitchers starting against the Reds this week — Woody Williams and Garrett Stephenson — are making their first start since coming off the DL.

        “We'd like to win all four,” Boone said. “But you can't do that until you win the first game of the doubleheader. If you lose that, you've got to win the next three.”

       



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