If baseball players go out on strike Aug. 30 for any significant amount of time, the Reds' playoff hopes will probably go out, as well.

        The Reds entered Friday night 5 games behind the St. Louis Cardinals in the National League Central. Chances of making up that kind of deficit in the 14 games before Aug. 30 — the strike date announced by the union Friday — are pretty slim.

WILL BASEBALL STRIKE OUT? • Walkout Aug. 30 as talks stumble • Team and city are staring at a Big Red-Ink Machine • Salaries, disparity (PDF) • Young Reds optimistic labor talks will succeed • Fans have no sympathy for players, owners • Lawmakers unlikely to go to bat for game • Strike would end Cinergy's life early

        Of those 14 games, seven are against the Houston Astros (who were 63-57 entering Friday's game at Cinergy Field), three against the Arizona Diamondbacks (76-45) and four against the St. Louis Cardinals (66-52). The Reds were 17-35 against teams with winning records, 44-23 against sub-.500 opponents.

        The Reds' final game before the strike date would be 12:35 p.m. against the Cardinals at Cinergy Field — just before the schedule gets easy. The Reds have only one series (Sept. 2-4 at St. Louis) against a winning team the rest of the way.

        For that and other reasons, Reds players want to avoid a work stoppage.

        “Hopefully, we'll keep working toward a settlement,” said Aaron Boone, the Reds' player representative. “If (commissioner) Bud (Selig) and the owners really want a deal, we can get this thing done.”

        The players hope setting a strike date will serve as an impetus to move talks forward.

        “I'm generally an optimist,” reliever Scott Sullivan said. “Hopefully, setting a date puts a concrete timetable on the talks. But as the days tick off, I think reality will set in.”

        Because the Reds are a young team, few players have been through a strike. One who has, 38-year-old shortstop Barry Larkin, didn't share the optimism of some of the other players.

        “I'm cynical because of what I was through in 1994,” he said, referring to the last work stoppage. “I think the owners are resolved to break the union. Whatever pressure they can exert to do that, they'll use.”

        Mr. Larkin said a strike would be even more devastating than the '94 work stoppage that wiped out the World Series and extended into the 1995 season.

        “I don't think the game will bounce back the way it did,” Mr. Larkin said. “I think you'd lose a lot of players. I think a tremendous amount of fans would never come back.

        “I hope the powers that be don't let that happen.”

        The powers on both sides?

        “Yes,” Mr. Larkin said.

        Reds manager Bob Boone, the old union activist who helped lead the midseason strike of 1981 when he was the National League player representative, says setting a date isn't as big a deal as everyone makes it out to be.

        “It's a mechanical thing,” he said. “Deadlines create the best negotiations. It's part of the process. I could have told you in April what the date would be. It's the best date to apply pressure, but it's early enough that you don't lose the postseason.”

        According to his son, Aaron, there is no doubt the players will walk if it comes to that.

        “I think we're prepared to,” the third baseman said. “We didn't do it to just throw it out there. It's real. But I don't feel like it's doomed. We have two weeks to continue negotiations. We hope and pray we get this thing resolved.”

        The 1994 players' strike also had playoff ramifications for the Reds. They were 66-48 and leading their division when the players walked out.

        In 1981, the Reds finished with the best overall record (66-42), but did not make the postseason. A split-season format was adopted following the strike.

        "I think the owners are resolved to break the union. Whatever pressure they can exert to do that, they'll use.'

Team and city are staring at a Big Red-Ink Machine Walkout Aug. 30 as talks stumble Young Reds optimistic labor talks will succeed Fans have no sympathy for players, owners Lawmakers unlikely to go to bat for game Strike would end Cinergy's life early Reds 9, Astros 3 Reds Box, Runs Larson's promising season may be ended by broken toe Moehler starting to feel comfortable in Cincinnati Phillies 4, Cardinals 0 Rolen welcomed, Philadelphia style Late games Notes from Friday's games Louisville 7, Toledo 3

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