Sunday, May 19, 2002
Armed for the long haul
Reds lead now, but NL Central is no joke
ST. LOUIS — It's easy to divide the National League Central into thirds.
You have two upstarts: Cincinnati and Pittsburgh. Most baseball experts expected them to be all but out of contention by now. But the season is one-fourth over and neither has faded — or in the Pirates' case, faded completely.
You have the two perennial contenders: St.Louis and Houston. Both have struggled with injuries, but both are still competitive.
And you have the two teams dead in the water before summer starts: Chicago and Milwaukee. It's early enough for either to turn around its season, but the teams have done nothing in the first quarter to show they are capable of that.
So what's going to happen the rest of the way?
“It's the same as every year,” St. Louis manager Tony La Russa said. “It's whoever pitches. There are a lot of good lineups, but you've got to be able to stop the other team to win.”
That's why the Cardinals remain the favorite. That's why the Astros remain the leading contender.
And that's why the Reds, despite being in first place at the one-quarter mark, still have skeptics. Any talk of them staying in contention begins with an “if,” as in, “If the starting pitching holds up . . .”
“We said from the start, that — if healthy — our lineup is as good as any,” Reds manager Bob Boone said. “We knew our bullpen was going to be very good. We said this team will go as far as the starting pitching takes it.”
So far, that has been first place. The Reds' starters haven't been dominating (3.63 ERA) and they haven't come close to throwing a complete game (they're averaging 5.43 innings per start). But they usually keep the team in the game for five or six innings.
Milwaukee manager Jerry Royster is impressed with Cincinnati. His Brewers happen to be 0-7 vs. the Reds, and he is convinced the Reds are no mirage.
“The way they've played offense without (Ken Griffey) Junior is incredible,” he said. “With that offense and the bullpen they have, the Reds are capable of winning it. I hate to say it, but I'm becoming a fan of them.”
The Reds are the division's biggest surprise. The Pirates are the second-biggest. But the Pirates have begun to fade, having lost three straight going into Saturday's game with the Astros, and the Reds extended their lead over St. Louis in the NL Central to five games Saturday.
The Pirates are similar to the Reds in that their rotation is functioning on an arm and a prayer, and they have a strong bullpen. The difference between the teams is the rest of the Pirates' lineup isn't nearly as good as the Reds', and Pittsburgh lacks depth.
Most experts thought injuries would devastate the Reds. But they've been without their best player (Griffey) for most of the season, and their Opening Day pitcher (Joey Hamilton) is on the 15-day disabled list.
Griffey's absence has been overcome by the emergence of Austin Kearns, who is hitting .368 and is a leading candidate for rookie of the year. The Reds' surplus of possible starting pitchers has offset Hamilton's absence. They don't have a Matt Morris or a Roy Oswalt, but they have eight decent starters.
Still, the Cardinals and Astros loom.
Someone mentioned to Boone that the Astros came into the weekend on a five-game winning streak (extended to six Friday night) and the Reds and Cardinals were on four-game runs.
“Only one surprise there,” he said.
But the baseball season is sports' longest haul.
“I've been pleased so far,” Boone said. “We'll see how the last three-fourths of the season goes.”
The Astros and Cardinals have dealt with pitching injuries. The Cardinals have used 11 different starters; last season they used six.
But the Cardinals are healing and their rotation is pretty much intact now. And the rest of the St. Louis lineup — with Fernando Vina, J.D. Drew, Albert Pujols and Jim Edmonds — is first-rate. Tino Martinez, who replaced Mark McGwire, hasn't hit much (.206), yet the Cards still are in second place. Their bullpen already was good, and they added Jason Isringhausen as the closer.
“I think the Cardinals and Astros are still the teams to beat,” Reds general manager Jim Bowden said. “The Cardinals' No. 1 and 2 starting pitchers — Matt Morris and Darryl Kile — are probably the best in the division. . . . Houston's Roy Oswalt and Wade Miller are pretty good, too.
“The Cardinals don't have any real weaknesses.”
The same can be said of Houston. The Astros' lineup — with Jeff Bagwell, Lance Berkman, Richard Hidalgo and Daryle Ward in the middle — is formidable. Craig Biggio is struggling (.228 entering Saturday), but you figure that has to change.
The $75 million question is: Will the Cubs rally? That's Chicago's payroll number — highest in the division. The Cubs have some of the best young arms in the division plus slugger Sammy Sosa, who was tied for the NL lead in home runs (15) entering Saturday.
But they have shown that a bad start and a bad clubhouse can kill you early.
As one of their top young starters, Kerry Wood, put it last week to Chicago writers: “We are playing like it's August and we are 15 games under. We are playing like we are already out of it. If you can't get up for a Cubs-Cardinals series, you got some problems. We are dead, flat, the whole team . . . Everybody needs to look in the mirror and see if they can honestly tell themselves they are giving their all, myself included.”
The Reds, meanwhile, have a great clubhouse. That, as much as anything, gives Boone confidence that his team will be in it for the long haul. The 8-0 lead the Reds blew in a 10-8 loss to the Cardinals last Sunday could have been the first slip in a collapse, but Cincinnati went to Milwaukee and won four straight.
That, as much as anything, gives Boone confidence.
“I wasn't surprised because of the character of this club,” Boone said. “There are going to be days when you look flat. That'll happen. You try to be on top of it. But we have a team with a lot of heart.”
Will that be enough for the Reds to stay with the Cardinals and Astros? Stay tuned for the next three-quarters of the season to find out.
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Armed for the long haul
