Sunday, April 14, 2002
Pitching: Developing young talent key to success
By John Fay, jfay@enquirer.com
The Cincinnati Enquirer
PHILADELPHIA — Baseball is a game of numbers: .300 average, 60 home runs, 20 wins, 100 RBI.
But the Reds' most telling numberthis season is $3.331 million. That's what the five pitchers currently in the starting rotation will earn before incentives this year.
That's shockingly low. How low?
• 90 pitchers in baseball, including Reds reliever Danny Graves, earn more than that in a season.
• Only three teams — the Florida Marlins, Pittsburgh Pirates and Oakland A's — don't have at least one starter earning more than $3.3 million.
• The world champion Arizona Diamondbacks' rotation makes $39.725 million. The American League champion New York Yankees' rotation makes $36.25 million. The National League Central champion St. Louis Cardinals' rotation makes $25.741 million.
Do the simple economics of starting pitching make it impossible for the Reds to compete?
“You can do it,” said Reds manager Bob Boone, “if you've got young people who are good enough. Pick five (Roy) Oswalts and you're not going to have a big payroll but you'll have a pretty good rotation.”
Oswalt is the Houston right-hander who went 14-3 with a 2.73 ERA last year as a rookie. He'll make $300,000 this season.
That's the key to success on a budget: Develop young pitching. If Oswalt wins 14 games this year (like he did last year), he'll earn $21,428 per win. If Mike Mussina, the free agent the Yankees signed for $11 million last year, wins 17 games (like he did last year), he'll earn $647,058 per win.
Even in the wacky world of baseball economics, pitching is grossly overpriced.
“What you're buying — when you look at the people who make big money — is their track record,” Boone said. “They've done something. When you look at large payroll teams, you've got a pretty good indication of what you're going to get.”
The Reds, with a payroll of $45million, nearly half of which goes to Barry Larkin and Ken Griffey Jr., don't even bid on the top free agent pitchers. The Reds had some preliminary talks with Albie Lopez, a free agent right-hander, in the offseason. He ended up signing for $4 million with Atlanta. That was after he went 9-19 last season.
So the Reds are forced to sign pitchers who are far removed from success (Joey Hamilton) or who have never had a lot of success (Jimmy Haynes). The Reds signed each for $500,000. Hamilton can earn up to $1.75 million with incentives. If he reaches those incentives, he'll probably be out of the Reds' price range for next season. The Reds signed Steve Parris in 1999 as a minor-league free agent. As soon as Parris established himself with an 11-4 record in 1999, he became too expensive for the Reds.
Parris was traded to Toronto for pitching prospects Clayton Andrews and Leo Estrella. Parris is now one of the pitchers who make more than the Reds' rotation. He'll earn $3.775 million after going 4-6 last year.
The Reds may be able to retain Hamilton or Haynes because of the increased revenue from Great American Ball Park next season. They may even be able to sign a free agent or two.
“With the added revenue,” Boone said, “we may be more of a financial player.”
But, even with the stadium, the Reds won't be successful unless they can develop pitching. The Oakland A's are what the Reds want to be.
The A's, in fact, are the envy of everyone in baseball who doesn't have $100 million to spend on payroll. For a mere $4.757 million, the A's have a rotation that includes three starters who would be the No.1 pitcher on all but a handful of teams in baseball.
“They've got three very good young pitchers,” Reds general manager Jim Bowden said. “But how did they get them?”
Bowden knows the answer to his own question. The A's got Mark Mulder, Barry Zito and Tim Hudson by picking high in the draft. They got those high picks through poor finishes. Hudson (18-9, 3.37), Zito (17-8, 3.49) and Mulder (21-8, 3.45) combined for a 63-25 record last year and all had ERAs under 3.50, which put them in the top 10 in the American League. The best part is none is over 25, and thus cheap.
The A's got those high picks by finishing last in their division three out of four years. Mulder was the second pick overall in the 1998 draft. Zito was the ninth pick in the '99 draft. Hudson was a sixth-round pick.
Fans, being fans, want it both ways: They want teams to develop pitching and win at the same time. The Reds, because they've been relatively successful, haven't drafted as high.
Ty Howington, the top pitching prospect in the organization, was the 12th pick in 1999. The Reds have also accumulated quite a few top prospects through trades. Chris Reitsma was a first-round pick by the Red Sox in 1996. Ricardo Aramboles was one of the New York Yankees' top prospects.
There are gems in lower rounds. Oswalt went in the 23rd round. Scott Williamson was a ninth-rounder.
“We'll continue to try to develop our young pitching,” Bowden said.
Howington's only 21 and appears to be on the fast track to the big leagues. Dustin Moseley, a first-rounder in 2000, is another prospect highly thought of.
Given the financial realities of the game, expect to see them in the big leagues before too long.
“You have to get lucky,” Boone said. “You have to have people mature quickly and have a lot of them. The odds aren't as good, but you can (win with young pitching).”
In the Reds' case, there really isn't any alternative.
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Pitching: Developing young talent key to success
