Johnny Bench watches batting practice. (Glenn Hartong photo) | ZOOM |

        SARASOTA, Fla. -- Start asking the Reds about their chances this season, and there will be a two-if minimum in the answer:

        "If we stay healthy ...'' and ''If the starting pitching come around ... '' are part of everyone's answer.

        If the two big ifs go the Reds' way, the theory is, they'll be able to compete.

        If the two big ifs go the other way, all you have to do is look at last year's 66-96 record and you can guess what probably will happen.

        The Reds finished last season with their worst record since 1982 because of injuries to their stars and ineffectiveness of their starting pitchers.

        Because the Reds operate with a tight budget, the club was unable to spend a lot in the offseason on depth -- to ease the sting of injuries -- or the rotation. The Reds signed three pitchers -- Joey Hamilton, Jimmy Haynes and Jose Rijo -- for the baseball equivalent of small change ($500,000 each). The fact all three made the team is the good news and the bad news. Good because it shows the trio pitched well. Bad because it shows how desperate the Reds were for pitching.

        All that said, there is a feeling in the Reds clubhouse that this season's club could surprise people. ''I'm really optimistic,'' said third baseman Aaron Boone. ''I think part of that is my nature. But we've seen a lot of good things. Joey Hamilton seems to be healthy. Elmer Dessens is a year better. (Jose Acevedo) and (Chris) Reitsma look good. (Scott Williamson) is getting healthy.''

        Said shortstop Barry Larkin: ''I like our chances to be competitive. Obviously, pitching is key. If it comes through, we will be competitive.''

        ''If we stay healthy, we're going to surprise people,'' closer Danny Graves said. ''We can stay in it if we're healthy. I'm not saying win 100 games and the World Series, but be competitive.''

        Hope springs eternal

        Part of the reason for the optimism is, every player on every team is optimistic each spring. But the rotation performed well this spring. Hamilton had a 0.69 ERA after four starts. Acevedo and Reitsma have been consistently good.

        Dessens hasn't been great this spring, but he showed the last two years he can keep the Reds in games. Haynes hasn't been very good this spring. But the Reds like the fact he threw 199 innings in 2000 and 172 last year. However, the young pitching is key. The young guys who got beat around last year have to grow up.

        ''The fact is, Reitsma's better, Acevedo's better,'' Reds manager Bob Boone said.

        The Reds' third rookie member of last year's rotation, Lance Davis, is rehabbing a sore shoulder. Seth Etherton, another starting candidate, will start the year on the 60-day disabled list. That gives the Reds some depth down the road if one of the five starters should struggle.

        The Reds also have four prospects -- Ty Howington, Luke Hudson, Ricardo Aramboles and Brian Reith -- who could make the jump to the big 1eagues. All spent time in the big-league camp.

        But the Reds made the decision early to stake this season's success on the veterans (Hamilton and Haynes) rather than rush the prospects. Still, the young guys (Howington, in particular) made an impression. ''We've got a lot of good arms,'' Larkin said. ''We'll wait and see how they do.''

        If the starting rotation holds its own -- we're not talking the 1970 Baltimore Orioles; we're talking five or six solid innings most nights -- everything else will fall in place ... if healthy, of course. The Reds' starting eight is good enough to win.

        There are weaknesses -- not much speed, no classic leadoff hitter -- but none is glaring. The Reds have two established stars (Larkin and Ken Griffey Jr.), three players entering their prime years (Sean Casey, Aaron Boone and Todd Walker), two guys with something to prove (Juan Encarnacion and Jason LaRue) and one budding star (Adam Dunn).

        ''You need usually 1,000 at-bats to reach your potential,'' Bob Boone said. ''When guys really get good and reach their peak, it's a couple thousand at-bats. That's a four-year deal. We got Casey coming into it. We've got Aaron coming into it. Larkin can still be a factor. Griffey. Dunn is coming into it. Encarnacion is coming into that period.

        ''This has the making of a dynasty kind of offense. It's all if, if, if. But certainly from a scouting standpoint, it's possible. We dream about it.''

        Health is the biggest if. Larkin, Aaron Boone and Griffey missed big portions of last year. With that tight, tight budget, the Reds couldn't afford to improve the depth.

        Former Red Chris Stynes would have been a good fit. He could step in for Aaron Boone or Walker without hurting the offense. But the Reds didn't even enter the bidding.

        The one place the Reds have depth is the bullpen. Reds relievers led the National League with a 3.71 ERA last year. Williamson, the 1999 NL rookie of the year, is back after missing all but two games of last season with an elbow injury. The Reds also are getting Jose Rijo from the start.

        Luis Pineda, the other player obtained with Encarnacion from Detroit for Dmitri Young, has one of the best arms in camp, and he finally made a roster spot.

        The other reason for optimism? Despite the storm of turmoil early in camp -- the he said-he said Griffey controversy started by Pokey Reese -- this, by all accounts, is a pretty good clubhouse.

        ''We're having fun,'' Graves said. ''That's when you win. We're going to be a lot better than people think. You look at hitting, defense and pitching. The only negative people can find with us is the starting pitching. But we've got some good arms. They can give us innings. That's what you need.

        ''Staying healthy is the big question. That's true with any team.''

        So if that happens ...

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