Monday, April 01, 2002
NL West Preview
Young Padres have a surprise for division
By Bob Matthews
Gannett News Service
1. PADRES
Manager: Bruce Bochy
Last season: 79-83
Key additions: SS Deivi Cruz, RHP Brett Tomko, SS Ramon Vazquez, RHP Steve Reed, LF Ron Gant, LHP Alan Embree.
Major losses: OF Tony Gwynn, OF Rickey Henderson, C Ben Davis, SS Alex Arias, OF Mike Darr.
Projected starting lineup: 2B D'Angelo Jimenez, CF Mark Kotsay, RF Ryan Klesko, 1B Phil Nevin, LF Bubba Trammell/Ray Lankford, 3B Sean Burroughs, C Wiki Gonzalez, SS Cruz/Vazquez.
Strengths: Underrated attack featuring Kotsay, Klesko, Nevin and Trammell. ... patient hitters (NL-most 678 walks and second-fewest strikeouts). ... stopper Trevor Hoffman. ... decent starting rotation with good young arms on the way up. ... GM Kevin Powers and Bochy a good team.
Weaknesses/question marks: Can rookie Burroughs make the lineup even better? ... can anyone emerge as ace of the all-righty starting rotation? ... defense must improve and a new left side of the infield should help. ... must play better at home (35-46 last season).
Don't be surprised if: The defensive shakeup pays off (Nevin from third to first; Klesko from first to right field). ... former Little League hero Burroughs is NL Rookie of the Year.
Reasonable goal: Wild-card playoff berth.
Predicted finish: 90-72
2. DIAMONDBACKS
Manager: Bob Brenly
Last season: 92-70; beat St. Louis 3-2 in the NL Division Series and beat Atlanta 4-1 in the NLCS before beating the New York Yankees in the World Series in 7 games.
Overview: It seems unlikely that Randy Johnson and Curt Schilling will match last season's pitching heroics, but even if they do, many other things would have to go right for the aging defending world champions in a rugged division.
Key additions: RHP Rick Helling, OF Jose Guillen, LHP Mike Myers.
Major losses: OF Reggie Sanders, RHP Albie Lopez.
Projected starting lineup: SS Tony Womack, RF Danny Bautista, LF Luis Gonzalez, 1B Mark Grace, 3B Jay Bell (until Matt Williams is ready), CF Steve Finley, 2B Craig Counsell, C Damian Miller.
Strengths: Experience and confidence after beating the Yankees in the World Series. ... One of baseball's all-time best 1-2 starting pitching punches in Randy Johnson and Curt Schilling. ... middle relief (Miguel Batista, Bret Prinz and LHP Mike Myers). ... Gonzalez's power.
Weaknesses/question marks: Age of key several players (Johnson 38, Grace 37, Williams 36). ... lack of power and run production a concern minus Saunders and Williams (broken leg). ... rest of the starting rotation. ... can RHP Todd Stottlemyre come back? ... can stopper Byung-Hyun Kim recover from his World Series nightmare?
Don't be surprised if: Bautista offsets the departure of Sanders but Bell can't replace Williams.
Reasonable goal: Become only the fourth NL team to repeat as world champions, but the odds are against them.
Predicted finish: 88-74
3. GIANTS
Manager: Dusty Baker
Last season: 90-72
Overview: Barry Bonds had a record 73 HRs last season but the Giants overall didn't play to their potential. With apparent upgrades at third base and right field, they should contend for the division title this year.
Key additions: OF Reggie Sanders, 3B David Bell, OF Tsuyoshi Shinjo, RHP Jay Witasick.
Major losses: LHP Shawn Estes, OF John Vander Wal, OF Eric Davis, RHP Mark Gardner, 1B Andres Galarraga.
Projected starting lineup: CF Shinjo, SS Rich Aurilia, LF Barry Bonds, 2B Jeff Kent, RF Sanders, 1B J.T. Snow, C Benito Santiago, 3B Bell.
Strengths: Reliable starting pitchers with Russ Ortiz, Jason Schmidt, Livan Hernandez, Kirk Rueter. ... bullpen featuring stopper Robb Nenn. ... Airelia, Bonds and Kent in the middle of the lineup? ... Baker and resourceful GM Brian Sabean.
Weaknesses/question marks: Lack of pop at infield corners. ... can Shinjo be a productive leadoff hitter? ... how many fewer HRs will Bonds hit this season? ... can motorcycle man Kent return 100 percent from a broken wrist? ... how much does Santiago have left? ... is Kurt Ainsworth ready to be No. 5 starter? ... team speed (NL-low 57 stolen bases).
Don't be surprised if: The pitching is better but the offense disappoints.
Reasonable goal: Win first playoff series since 1989.
Predicted finish: 86-76
4. DODGERS
Manager: Jim Tracy
Last season: 86-76
Overview: The Dodgers are one of the toughest teams to gauge. If most of the pitchers come through and 3B Adrian Beltre has a breakthrough season, they could win the division. If the pitching flops, they could finish fourth.
Key additions: OF Brian Jordan, RHP Hideo Nomo, LHP Kazuhisa Ishii, LHP Omar Daal, RHP Paul Quantrill, INF Cesar Izturis, OF Dante Bichette, LHP Odalis Perez, OF Dave Roberts, RHP Tim Crabtree.
Major losses: OF Gary Sheffield, RHP Chan Ho Park, RHP Jeff Shaw, RHP Terry Adams, RHP James Baldwin, RHP Luke Prokopec.
Projected starting lineup: CF McKay Christensen/Dave Roberts/Marquis Grissom, 2B Mark Grudzielanek, RF Shawn Green, LF Jordan/Bichette, 3B Adrian Beltre, C Paul Lo Duca, 1B Eric Karros, SS Izturis.
Strengths: Middle of the lineup with Green, Jordan, Beltre and Lo Duca. ... depth in starting pitching if all are healthy (Kevin Brown, Kazuhisa Ishii, Andy Ashby, Hideo Nomo, Terry Adams, Odalis Perez, Omar Daal).
Weaknesses/question marks: Leadoff spot. ... center field. ... can Karros bounce back from back problems and a poor 2001 season? ... will Izturis hit? ... how much will Green miss Sheffield hitting behind him? ... can RHP Darren Dreifort (elbow surgery) return during the season? ... can Matt Herges and/or Paul Quantrill replace departed closer Jeff Shaw?
Don't be surprised if: The Dodgers have a strong first half and disappointing second half, or vice versa.
Reasonable goal: Challenge for the wild-card playoff berth.
Predicted finish: 77-85
5. ROCKIES
Manager: Buddy Bell
Last season: 73-89
Overview: The Rockies slashed the player payroll this offseason and embarked on a youth movement. It figures to show on the field and at the gate.
Key additions: 3B Todd Zeile, OF Benny Agbayani, RHP Todd Jones, RHP Jose Paniagua, LHP Dennys Reyes, RHP Rick White, C Tony Eusebio, C Carlos Hernandez, RHP Mike James, LHP Kent Mercker, RHP Pete Harbisch.
Major losses: 3B Jeff Cirillo, OF Alex Ochoa, RHP Jay Powell, RHP Gabe White, LHP Brian Bohanon, RHP Dan Miceli.
Projected starting lineup: CF Juan Pierre, 2B Jose Ortiz, RF Larry Walker, 1B Todd Helton, 3B Zeile/Greg Norton, LF Todd Hollandsworth/Agbayani/Jack Cust, C Ben Petrick, SS Juan Uribe.
Strengths: Walker and Helton batting in the 3-4 spots. ... leadoff man Pierre. ... Uribe's potential. ... high-priced LHPs Mike Hampton and Denny Neagle expected to do better than last season's combined 23-21 record. ... underrated bullpen.
Weaknesses/question marks: Rest of the starting rotation (John Thomson might surprise). ... more soft outs than usual in the lineup. ... Zeile is a big drop from Cirillo offensively or defensively. ... can Jose Jimenez be a top-notch closer?
Don't be surprised if: The Rockies fail to lead the NL in runs for a change. ... Helton wins the NL batting title.
Reasonable goal: Avoid 100 losses.
Predicted finish: 70-92
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