Monday, April 01, 2002
NL East Preview
Beefed-up Braves should prevail again
By Bob Matthews
Gannett News Service
1. BRAVES
Manager: Bobby Cox
Last season: 88-74; beat Houston 3-0 in the N.L. Division Series and lost 4-1 to Arizona in the NLCS.
Overview: The Braves Greg Maddux and Tom Glavine will turn 36 this season but remain one of baseball's top 1-2 starting-pitching duos. The team's offense might be improved just enough with the additions of Gary Sheffield and Vinny Castilla to help hold off the Phillies and Mets.
Key additions: Sheffield, Castilla, RHP Albie Lopez, C Henry Blanco.
Major losses: OF Brian Jordan, RHP John Burkett, RHP Steve Karsay, LHP Odalis Perez, INF Rey Sanchez, RHP Jose Cabrera.
Projected starting lineup: SS Rafael Furcal, CF Andruw Jones, LF Chipper Jones, RF Sheffield, 3B Castilla, C Javy Lopez, 1B Julio Franco/B.J. Surhoff/Wes Helms, 2B Marcus Giles.
Strengths — Maddux and Glavine (386-203 combined record with the Braves) ... closer John Smoltz ... arguably baseball's best-hitting outfield (Sheffield, Chipper Jones and Andruw Jones).
Weaknesses/question marks: Rest of the starting rotation (Lopez, Kevin Millwood and Jason Marquis) ... How much does 44-year-old Franco have left? ... Will the switch of Chipper Jones to LF to make room for Castilla at 3B pay off?
Don't be surprised if: The three starting outfielders combine for 110 HRs.
Reasonable goal: Win the N.L. East again.
Predicted finish: 91-71
2. PHILLIES
Manager: Larry Bowa
Last season: 86-76
Overview: The 2001 Phillies improved by 21 wins last year but the front office did nothing to improve the team in the offseason while the Braves and Mets were working to get better.
Key additions: OF Ricky Ledee, RHP Terry Adams.
Major losses: LHP Omar Daal, LHP Dennis Cook.
Projected starting lineup: SS Jimmy Rollins, CF Doug Glanville, RF Bobby Abreu, 3B Scott Rolen, LF Pat Burrell, 1B Travis Lee, C Mike Lieberthal, 2B Marlon Anderson.
Strengths: Underrated lineup (featuring Rolen, Abreu and Burrell) without a soft out ... underrated starting rotation (Robert Person, Randy Wolf, Brandon Duckworth, Terry Adams and Brett Myers) ... team speed (led N.L. with 153 stolen bases) ... defense (franchise-low 91 errors).
Weaknesses/question marks: Middle relief ... Can closer Jose Mesa match his surprising 2001 performance? ... Can Lieberthal return from major knee surgery? ... weak bench ... Rolen's discontent with Bowa and the front office ... Can Bowa keep his cool and avoid alienating more players?
Don't be surprised if: The offense improves significantly.
Reasonable goal: Keep the heat on Atlanta all season and earn the N.L.'s wild-card playoff berth.
Predicted finish: 88-74
3. METS
Manager: Bobby Valentine
Last season: 82-80
Overview: General manager Steve Phillips did an excellent job beefing up the lineup in the offseason. Now the pitching staff could be the problem.
Key additions: 2B Roberto Alomar, 1B Mo Vaughn, OF Jeromy Burnitz, OF Roger Cedeno, OF Gary Matthews, RHP Pedro Astacio, RHP Jeff D'Amico, LHP Shawn Estes, LHP Mark Guthrie, RHP David Weathers, 3B John Valentin.
Major losses: 3B Robin Ventura, 1B Todd Zeile, RHP Kevin Appier, OF Matt Lawton, LHP Glendon Rusch, OF Benny Agbayani, OF Tsuyoshi Shinjo, INF Desi Relaford.
Projected starting lineup: LF Cedeno, 2B Alomar, RF Jeromy Burnitz, C Mike Piazza, 1B Vaughn, 3B Edgardo Alfonzo, CF Jay Payton, SS Rey Ordonez.
Strengths: Potent lineup featuring the power of Piazza, Vaughn and Burnitz ... terrific DP duo in Alomar and Ordonez ... stopper Armando Benitez (at least until the postseason) ... bullpen depth ... starting pitchers Estes and Al Leiter ... improved team speed with Alomar and Cedeno.
Weaknesses/question marks: Rest of the starting rotation (including the physical status of D'Amico and Astasio) ... Ordonez's bat ... Can Vaughn return to top form after sitting out last season with a torn triceps? ... Can Alfonzo adapt to third base and bounce back from a disappointing offensive season?
Don't be surprised if: The Mets top last season's run total (642) by Sept. 1.
Reasonable goal: Wild-card playoff berth.
Predicted finish: 86-76
4. MARLINS
Manager: Jeff Torborg
Last season: 76-86
Overview: No team has more live young arms in the starting rotation. If a few position players come through offensively, the Marlins will be a handful for any opponent.
Key additions: LHP Nate Tuet.
Major losses: OF Jeff Abbott, RHP Juan Acevedo, LHP Jesus Sanchez.
Projected starting lineup: 2B Luis Castillo, CF Preston Wilson, LF Cliff Floyd, 3B Mike Lowell, RF Kevin Millar, 1B Derrek Lee, C Charles Johnson, SS Alex Gonzalez.
Strengths: Promising starting pitchers Ryan Dempster, Josh Beckett, Brad Penny and A.J. Burnett ... Floyd, Wilson and Lowell in the middle of the lineup.
Weaknesses/question marks: Bullpen ... need more consistent play from middle infielders Castillo and Gonzalez.
Don't be surprised if: The staff ERA continues to drop ... Burkett is N.L. Rookie of the Year.
Reasonable goal: A .500 record.
Predicted finish: 81-81
5. EXPOS
Manager: Frank Robinson
Last season: 68-94
Overview: The Expos have some impressive front-line talent but motivation could be a problem. This could be the team's last season in Montreal and possibly anywhere. Home attendance figures to be pitiful and who could blame fans from abandoning a sinking ship?
Key additions: 1B Andres Galarraga, OF Jose Canseco, 3B Chris Truby, P Zach Day, RHP Matt Herges.
Major losses: RHP Mike Thurman, 3B Geoff Blum, RHP Guillermo Mota.
Projected starting lineup: CF Peter Bergeron, SS Orlando Cabrera, 2B Jose Vidro, RF Vladimir Guerrero, LF Jose Canseco/Brad Wilkerson, 1B Lee Stevens/Galarraga, 3B Truby/Fernando Tatis, C Michael Barrett.
Strengths: Solid nucleus of young players in Guerrero, Vidro, Cabrera, SS Brandon Phillips and pitcher Javier Vazquez. ... respectable starting rotation with Vazquez, Tony Armas Jr., Carl Pavano and Tomo Ohka.
Weaknesses/question marks: Lack of quality leadoff hitter ... bullpen. ... Can Tatis come back from a knee injury? ... difficulty making player moves (Expos are owned by the owners of the 29 other major-league teams).
Don't be surprised if: The Expos play better on the road than at home.
Reasonable goal: Win 75 games and draw 750,000 home fans.
Predicted finish: 5th place (63-99 record).
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