SARASOTA, Fla. — When asked who will be the surprise of 2002 for the Reds, general manager Jim Bowden says: “The right fielder.”

        Whom that right fielder will be is one of the mysteries of this spring training. The Reds promise to give Juan Encarnacion, Ruben Mateo, Austin Kearns and Wily Mo Pena equal shots. The competition begins today when the Reds hold an intrasquad game.

        Bowden won't even handicap the race.

        “We're completely open-minded,” he said. “Of the four, which ones become stars? Do they all become stars? It all depends on how quickly they make adjustments on what they have to work on. It's going to very, very interesting to watch.”

        Each of the four has been considered a can't-miss prospect since originally signing. But each is a slightly different kind of player, and each is at a different stage of development.

        If one of the four establishes himself quickly, the Reds might be able to trade one or two of the others for pitching.

        “They all have different trade interest,” Bowden said. “We'd want a No. 1, 2 or 3 starter for them. That's what it's going to take. We feel like we can get No.4 or 5 starters elsewhere.”

        It's extremely difficult to trade for quality starting pitching. But all four players have that kind of potential. Just ask Jose Rijo. He had Encarnacion, Mateo and Pena at his camp in the Dominican Republic in the offseason. And during rehab, he saw Kearns last year.

        “They are all great players,” Rijo said. “Pena has the most potential, but he's young. Encarnacion and Mateo have the most experience. Kearns is the real deal, too. It's a good position for the Reds to be in.”

        Let's take a quick look at each:

        • Encarnacion is 26 years old with three full years in the majors. He came to the Reds from Detroit in the Dmitri Young trade. Encarnacion seemed to have his breakout year in 2000 when he hit .289 with 14 home runs, 72 RBI and 16 steals. He slipped last year to .242, 12 HRs, 52 RBI and nine steals.

        “Juan is a guy we project can hit .270, .280 in the big leagues with 25 to 30 home runs,” Bowden said.

        • Mateo, 24, was named the best all-around player in Triple A in 1999 by Baseball America when he was in the Texas organization. He made the big club in 2000. But he spent most of the year on the disabled list. In fact, he's regularly been slowed by injuries — the big one being a broken femur in 2000.

        The Reds put Mateo, obtained June 15 for pitcher Rob Bell, in a speed and strength program after last season. They hope that will get him back to where he was.

        “Ruben Mateo in the minor leagues has always been a better hitter for average,” Bowden said. “Mateo is a guy we project to hit .300 in the big leagues with, early in his career, 15 to 20 homers, later in his career up to 40 home runs — potentially.”

        “I scouted him 3 1/2 years ago,” said Reds director of player development Tim Naehring. “The ball has a special sound when it comes off the bat. He has all the tools. It's a matter of putting it together.”

        • Kearns, 21, is the only home-grown player of the four. He was the Reds' 1998 No.1 pick, ahead of Adam Dunn. Baseball America has named Kearns the Reds' top prospect the last two years.

        He had a rough season last year because a of torn ligament in his right thumb. He proved he was healthy by hitting .371 in the Arizona Fall League.

        “Kearns is a very solid player, comparable to a young Kevin McReynolds — a guy that should hit .280, 25 home runs, and drive in 90 runs or maybe a little more,” Bowden said. “He's a solid all-around player. He doesn't have the speed of the other three. But he has better patience at the plate.”

        “He's an extremely polished baseball player,” Naehring said. “He's able to make adjustments quickly.”

        • Pena, 20, signed an unprecedented five-year, $3.7 million contract with the New York Yankees in 1999. The Reds acquired him in March for third baseman Drew Henson and outfielder Michael Coleman.

        “He has superstar potential,” Naehring said.

        “He could hit between 50 and 60 homers runs and steal 40 bases,” Bowden said.

        Pena is the most unpolished of the four candidates. He's also the most powerfully built at 6 feet 3, 215 pounds. He has a .249 career average in the minors and has struck out in more than a third of his at-bats. But he had 26 home runs and 113 RBI at Class A Dayton last season.

        “He's got a great attitude,” Naehring said. “He comes to play every day. He has one simple thing he has to do: Make adjustments to the baseball. He has to cut down his strikeouts. Do we think he can do that? Yes.”

        The plan is to start Pena at Double A and Kearns at Triple A. But the Reds won't hold either back if one is the best right fielder in camp.

        “If they're ready, so be it,” Bowden said.

        If Encarnacion or Mateo wins the job, the other has a chance to make the club as the fourth outfielder.

        “We know how important the fourth outfielder is,” Bowden said. “We've seen that with Michael Tucker and Jeffrey Hammonds.”

        But none of four is destined to be a fourth outfielder for long.

        “All have tremendous potential,” Bowden said.

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