Bill Deane, the former Hall of Fame researcher who is considered the preeminent expert on Hall voting patterns, said he does not foresee Barry Larkin making the Hall of Fame through the Baseball Writers Association of America, which does the voting.

        Larkin, who has a .299 career average with 2,048 hits, 181 home runs and 851 RBI, is highly regarded by the people who analyze Hall of Fame candidates for a living. Deane included Larkin in a recent children's book, The Top Ten Baseball Shortstops of All-Time, and Bill James calls Larkin “one of the 10 most complete players in history,” mentioning him in the same breath as Willie Mays and Joe DiMaggio and “a few others as the most well-rounded stars” of all time. James rates Larkin as the sixth greatest shortstop ever.

        But Deane thinks the BBWAA electorate is going to wind up lumping Larkin in the Alan Trammel (16 percent in this, his first year on the ballot) category, higher than another great Reds shortstop, Davey Concepcion (12 percent in Tuesday's vote), but not enough higher to make the strong, early showing (40 percent range) that might lead to election by the BBWAA.

        “Unless he has a (couple of more very good years), I don't foresee him making it (through the BBWAA),” Deane said. “If his career ended today, I couldn't see him making it.”

        Larkin has some things going for him that Trammel didn't — Larkin won an MVP award, was the first shortstop to hit 30 home runs and steal 30 bases in a season, has won nine Silver Slugger awards as the best-hitting shortstop in his league — but the question is whether the electorate is going to recognize it and vote for him because of it.

        Hurting Larkin's candidacy, Deane said, is the retirement of shortstop Cal Ripken, who has much higher career totals in most offensive categories, particularly home runs (431) and RBI (1,695), and should be going into the Hall by a landslide vote in five years. And among shortstops still active, Alex Rodriguez figures to continue to post monster offensive numbers, and all-around great Derek Jeter should continue to shine, raising the bar for players at that position.

        Why would the BBWAA not regard Larkin as highly as those who make a living rating players do?

        “They might look at his hitting 33 homers one year and five another year and attribute it to inconsistency,” Deane said. “In truth, it's a result of injuries, but (voters are going to figure) maybe he wasn't playing up to his potential.”

Ozzie makes Hall; can Larkin? Reds sign Casey, but talks with Harnisch fail Road to Hall could be uphill for Larkin Baseball notebook

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