Sunday, October 07, 2001
2002 chances depend on starting pitching
By John Fay
The Cincinnati Enquirer
The 2001 Reds season was a mess by any standard. The Reds lost 90-plus games for the first time since 1984.
There were all the injuries. There was the failed Deion Sanders experiment. Players were coming and going so quickly, it was hard to tell them without a scorecard.
But, as of 4 p.m. or so today, that's history.
What you, as a Reds fan, want to know is: Can it get better in 2002?
The answer is a qualified yes — with two huge ifs attached.
It will get better if the Reds stay reasonably healthy. And it will get better if the Reds can somehow improve the starting pitching.
The first if is a matter of fate. You have to think the Reds will stay healthier, just because they were hit so hard by injuries this year.
But the starting pitching question won't be left to fate. The Reds have no shortage of candidates. If spring training began today, the Reds would have no fewer than nine pitchers vying for the rotation.
If 1999 first-round pick Ty Howington — who pitched in Single-A and Double-A in 2001 — turns out to be the Roy Oswalt of 2002, and if Chris Reitsma makes the kind of jump Oakland's Mark Mulder made in one year, the Reds have enough pitchers.
But the Reds aren't counting on that.
“We're not going to limit ourselves to our pool of pitchers,” Reds general manager Jim Bowden said. “We're going to be searching through trades and searching through free agency to upgrade that pool.”
That shows you two things: the importance of starting pitching and the Reds' lack of confidence in what they have.
Expect everyone except outfielders Ken Griffey Jr. and Adam Dunn to be offered up in trade talks for legitimate starters.
First baseman Sean Casey or outfielder Dmitri Young could go. Ditto middle infielders Todd Walker or Pokey Reese. The Reds may try to package a player on the big-league roster with one of the young, talented outfielders in the minors — Austin Kearns, Wily Mo Pena or Ben Broussard.
Reds starters had the highest ERA (5.52) and threw the fewest innings (5 1/3 per start) of any staff in the National
League entering the final weekend. That's what happens when you try to develop pitchers at the major-league level. Because of injuries to, and failures by, veterans, the Reds had no choice. Five first-year players made starts for the Reds this year. The last time that happened was during World War II (1945).
“We had to live through some badness,” Reds manager Bob Boone said.
Those rookies will be older and, the Reds hope, better. None looked like a potential No.1 or No.2 starter this year. But there still is time.
“I don't think you ever know until they actually put it together,” Bowden said. “Mark Mulder was the No.1 pick out of college, and he was predicted as a definite No.1 starter. For the first couple of years, it looked like he was a third or fourth starter. Then in the last year, he became a No. 1.”
Mulder went from 9-10 with a 5.44 ERA last year to 21-8 with a 3.45 ERA this year. Another Oakland starter, Barry Zito, went from 7-4 in 2000 to 17-9 in 2001.
Reitsma, Lance Davis and Jose Acevedo were thrust into the big leagues early because of the Reds' dearth of pitching. All had some success but were wildly inconsistent.
“They will reflect back on the mistakes they've made and make adjustments,” Reds pitching coach Don Gullett said. “It becomes a learning process. You hope guys make adjustments.”
Davis goes into today's start 8-3. Acevedo finished the season with three consecutive quality starts. Reitsma had a 4.17 ERA, respectable these days, halfway through the year.
“This has kind of been a lost year,” shortstop Barry Larkin said. “But for Adam Dunn, it's been an incredible year. Lance Davis and Jose Acevedo have had some success and learned a lot.”
Given the Reds' budget, obtaining a top-flight starter in a trade or on the free-agent market is next to impossible. If the Reds are to find a stopper, he'll have to come from within. The top candidates are Howington and Reitsma.
“Ty Howington was projected as a No. 2 (starter) when we drafted him,” Bowden said. “Chris Reitsma has the potential to develop into a guy who can be a No.1 or 2. Whether or not that happens will be based on health and performance.”
Baseball America rates Howington as the No.2 left-handed pitching prospect in baseball.
Beyond the rookies, the Reds have Elmer Dessens and a lot of pitchers coming off injuries. Dessens is the only pitcher in the Opening Day rotation who made every start. Dessens, who finished 10-14 with a 4.48 ERA, is also the only pitcher Boone has penciled in to start next year.
The rehabilitating group includes Pete Harnisch, Seth Etherton, Joey Hamilton and Scott Williamson. And there's also Jose Rijo, who came back this year as a reliever after six years off and five elbow surgeries.
Harnisch, Rijo and Hamilton are free agents. The Reds will have to re-sign them.
“We've spoken to all three,” Bowden said. “We've told them that we want to continue this process of trying to resurrect their careers.”
The Reds will offer each of the three low base salaries with incentives for innings pitched.
Harnisch, Etherton and Williamson are each coming off surgery. All are expected to be ready for spring training.
Harnisch is a proven starter. He was 14-7 with a 3.14 ERA in 1998 and 16-10 with a 3.68 ERA in '99. Last year, he spent almost two months on the disabled list but still went 8-6 after starting the season 0-4.
Williamson is an intriguing possibility. He is coming off Tommy John surgery. Before the injury, he had the best stuff on the Reds' staff.
He went 12-7 with a 2.41 ERA and 19 saves to win the Rookie of the Year Award in '99. Last year he was 5-8 with a 3.29 ERA, including 3-3 with a 2.93 ERA as a starter.
“We think he can be a No.2,” Bowden said.
Etherton was obtained in the 2000 offseason from the Anaheim Angels for shortstop prospect Wilmy Caceres. Etherton, a 24-year-old right-hander, went 5-1 with a 5.52 ERA for the Angels in 2000.
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2002 chances depend on starting pitching
