Sunday, September 02, 2001
Griffey + Dunn = 100 homers?
Reds GM Jim Bowden thinks Ken Griffey Jr, and Adam Dunn could hit 50-60 homers apiece next season
By John Fay
The Cincinnati Enquirer
Quiz time. When Reds general manager Jim Bowden said the other day that Adam Dunn and Ken Griffey Jr. each could hit 50 to 60 home runs next year, it showed:
A) Bowden loves hyperbole when talking about his players;
B) Baseball numbers are out of whack;
C) In just more than a month in the big leagues, Dunn has established himself as the leading candidate to become the next great home run hitter.
D) All of the above.
The answer is D.
“No question. They could (each hit 50 to 60 homers),” said Reds manager Bob Boone. “The magic word is could.”
You can forgive Bowden for such a boastful prediction. In this lost summer for the Reds, there hasn't been much to produce enthusiasm. But the month Griffey and Dunn just completed is a strong argument that 2002 and beyond may not be so bleak.
Griffey hit 11 home runs and 29 RBI. Dunn hit 12 homers and 27 RBI. Their combined 23 home runs is a club record for two Reds in a single month.
Thus the great expectations for next year.
“Look at that lineup,” Reds batting instructor Ken Griffey Sr. said. “Can you imagine what they'll do next year when (Dunn) gets some experience?'
Only one Red — George Foster (52) in 1977 — has hit 50 or more home runs in a year. Only once in history — Roger Maris (61) and Mickey Mantle (54) of the New York Yankees in 1961 — have two teammates hit more than 50 home runs in a season.
That's where the out-of-whack numbers come into play. Three players enter September with 50 or more already this year.
But half of Bowden's statement isn't all that bold. With Griffey Jr., it's a foregone conclusion that, if he's healthy, he'll hit in the 50 range. He averaged 52 his last four years in Seattle. He hit 56 in 1997 and again in 1998.
This year, he'll end up with closer to 30. But he didn't start a game until June 14.
“(And) he's going to end up having a great year,” Boone said. “We're seeing now what we saw in spring training. That home run he hit the other day (in Montreal) — it was a high fastball, and he just yanked it out to right. That's how how he manufactures all those home runs.”
“We didn't see that last year.”
With Dunn, it's simply conjecture. He's done for one month what Griffey's done over 12 years. The Reds don't think Dunn is another Griffey — he lacks the all-around skills of Junior — but they don't hold back when comparing him to home run hitters.
“I expect Adam to be in the next wave of players like Sammy Sosa, Mark McGwire and Jose Canseco,” Boone said. “(Dunn's) going to hit 50 home runs (combined) at three levels this year. He's hitting them at this level.
“He has a chance to be in that magic class.”
Dunn shook his head when he heard what Bowden had said. Dunn exudes confidence. You would never guess, at 21, he's the youngest guy in the Reds clubhouse by two years.
But he knows not to predict or shoot for Babe Ruth numbers.
“I'm not going to go out there and try to hit home runs,” Dunn said. “That's when you don't hit them.”
Griffey, who was anointed a star about the time he took the field at Moeller High School, warns against unreasonable expectations for Dunn.
“Just let him play,” Griffey said. “Don't start expecting certain numbers from him. He's doing a fine job. But he's going to have to make adjustments. But he's got a whole offseason to prepare for next year.”
Dunn and Griffey have benefited from hitting No. 2 and No. 3, respectively, in the lineup most of their time together.
“I think it helps Junior because Adam sees a lot of pitches,” Boone said.
Griffey contends Dunn is helped, too.
“Who are they going to be more afraid of?” Griffey said.
Answer: Griffey, meaning pitchers are going to go after Dunn rather than risk walking him.
Griffey says he and Dunn should eventually be flopped in the order. “Then he can see how they pitch me,” Griffey said. “They're going to pitch him the same way.”
What Dunn's done is unexpected. He was the Reds' second-best prospect at Single-A Dayton last year, hitting .281 with 16 homers and 79 RBI. Austin Kearns' numbers (.306-27-104) were better across the board.
Dunn was picked in the second round of the 1998 draft; Kearns was the first-round pick. The Reds took a risk on Dunn. He was as good a football prospect as baseball. His Rookie-ball season lasted 34 games before he went off to play football at the University of Texas. He hit all of four home runs for Billings that year.
He committed to the Reds full-time before the 1999 season. But he still didn't show his power potential. He hit 11 home runs at Single-A Rockford in '99 before improving slightly for Dayton last year.
Dunn went into this year with the idea of hitting more home runs. His goal was to hit one every series. He made the goal in Double A. And he's been meeting it of late in the majors. The Houston series the Reds just completed was the eighth consecutive series in which he homered.
Dunn would like to avoid the tag of “home run hitter.”
“I think I can hit for an average,” he said. “I want to be an all-around player like Larry Walker.”
Griffey says Dunn's reputation as a home run hitter is growing not only because of how often Dunn hits them, but how far. More than half of Dunn's homers have been 400-plus feet.
“There's more emphasis on home runs and the distance of them,” Griffey said. “They flash 440 feet, 470 feet and the occasional 500. Fans pay attention to that.”
The way Dunn and Griffey have been hitting them, fans are likely to keep paying attention — to both of them.
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Griffey + Dunn = 100 homers?
