Sunday, July 08, 2001
What's in the crystal ball?
Sizing up the Reds in the second half
Dmitri Young and Pokey Reese get traded. Adam Dunn takes a starting job in the outfield. Pete Harnisch goes packing. GM Jim Bowden loses his job. Any or all of those things could happen in the next few months. Let the speculation begin.
By Chris Haft
The Cincinnati Enquirer
Who stays and who goes?
Each day between now and the July 31 trading deadline will be charged with an extra helping of intrigue. Will Dmitri Young be traded today? Or Pokey Reese? Or both in the same blockbuster deal?
Trade talk has focused on those two Reds, since most others are unavailable or unwanted. Pete Harnisch would be prime trade bait but he's still trying to heal his elbow. Trading Sean Casey, Danny Graves or Chris Reitsma would be suicidal.
With Barry Larkin recovering from his groin injury, Cincinnati would prefer to keep Reese, the second baseman who's a natural shortstop, for at least a little longer. This leaves Young as the Red whose ears are most sensitive to the sound of a ringing phone.
Don't be fooled by the term “deadline.” Trades still can be made after July 31. They just become harder to execute at that point, since players must clear waivers first before they can be exchanged. But if Ken Griffey Jr. can clear waivers, as he did last year, anybody can.
As September approaches, the glare will shift from players to officials:
• General manager Jim Bowden's contract runs for two more seasons. But given the heat he has taken this year for the Justin Atchley mixup, the Ken Griffey Jr. “misdiagnosis” remark and the club's struggles, he'll need a public vote of confidence from upper management before his return is assured.
• If Bowden vanishes, expect his replacement to come from within. Assistant GM Darrell “Doc” Rodgers, player personnel director Tim Naehring and special assistant Gary Hughes would be among the candidates.
• Injuries have helped deflect blame from manager Bob Boone, so he'll likely be back. Besides, he's signed through 2002 with a club option for 2003. Still, he'll also need an official pat on the back if the Reds approach 100 losses.
• Third-base coach Ron Oester has said he'll announce his plans at end of the season. Oester sincerely loves being part of the Reds organization. But after losing out in last year's managerial search (some might say “cheated”) and clashing with bench coach Tim Foli last month, it won't be surprising if Oester seeks a change.
Whom to watch
• DMITRI YOUNG, left fielder
Why he's a key: Young appears the most marketable Red in terms of trade value, other than virtual untouchables such as Aaron Boone, Sean Casey, Danny Graves, Ken Griffey Jr. and Chris Reitsma. The slick glove he has displayed in nine starts at first base, as well as his ability to play third base in a pinch, enhances his value beyond just being a legitimate .300 hitter.
The Reds can clear significant payroll room, always a concern for them, by trading Young, whose $3.5 million salary should top $5 million next year through salary arbitration. Cincinnati also wants something in return for Young before he becomes a free agent after the 2002 season. Moreover, trading Young would open up an outfield spot for Triple-A Louisville's Adam Dunn, the organization's prize prospect.
If Young stays, the Reds could focus on dealing another outfielder, such as Alex Ochoa or Michael Tucker. Granted, that's unlikely . With eight home runs, Young hasn't generated the power the Reds envisioned before the season. Yet as a switch hitter who sprays line drives in the gaps, he offers the lineup's best complement to Casey and Griffey, both left-handed batters.
What could happen: As good a salesman as Bowden is, he might have trouble receiving close to adequate value for Young in a trade. Interest in Young appears to have diminished as the July 31 nonwaiver trading deadline approaches.
Though a handful of contenders are trying to bolster their offenses, Young's relative lack of power makes him a second-tier choice behind Kansas City's Jermaine Dye, Detroit's Tony Clark and Oakland's Jason Giambi (who probably isn't going to be traded, but will draw inquiries).
The Atlanta Braves' interest in Young waned after they signed third baseman Ken Caminiti on Thursday. Pitching-starved teams probably will offer the Colorado Rockies better packages of players for right-hander Pedro Astacio than the Reds could in a deal involving Young. Minnesota and the New York Yankees have scouted Young, 27, but aren't in any hurry to deal. Pitching is the Twins' priority, anyway.
Boston, which could use a handy bat, and Seattle, where Young has a fan in manager Lou Piniella, might still have interest. There's also Baltimore, which must fix an aging roster.
The passing of the trading deadline won't mean the end of Young-related trade rumors if he's still a Red. Cincinnati easily could slip him through waivers and make a deal with a team that covets him for the stretch drive.
Should Young remain a Red the rest of the season, it wouldn't be a disaster. He's a popular, respected figure in the clubhouse. Also, his penchant for strong finishes (he owns a .305 career average after the All-Star break) indicates he can bring the Reds a few extra wins and hike his trade value for the offseason.
• ADAM DUNN, Louisville outfielder
Why he's a key: Dunn is sort of a one-man version of the 1999 season, when the Reds roared to 96 victories behind suddenly maturing youngsters such as Sean Casey, Danny Graves, Pokey Reese and Aaron Boone. He also represents the club's vision of 2003, when they hope to field a younger (and cheaper) team primed for success as the franchise moves into Great American Ball Park.
Dunn's promotion later this season — it'll happen; it's just a matter of when — will reflect Cincinnati's intent to bring the future closer.
Cincinnati's front office figured that Dunn, 21, would progress this season as he advanced from Single-A Dayton to Double-A Chattanooga. But Dunn quickly proved he was ready for greater challenges after dominating the Southern League (.343, 12 homers and 31 RBI in 39 games) and proceeded to Triple-A. Entering the weekend, he was hitting .320 with 18 homers and 49 RBI in 47 games and had won three International League Batter of the Week awards.
“He has exceeded what expectations were for him as a player. It's been a great surprise,”
Naehring said. “His approach at the plate is major-league caliber at this point.”
What could happen: Dunn could be here before July ends, as long as an outfielder is traded. Wisely, the Reds realize that Dunn's skills won't continue to develop unless he plays consistently. He's still refining his game after spending much of his athletic life in football, a sport the ex-quarterback finally left for good in 1999.
Whether Dunn's a September call-up or an earlier arrival, fans shouldn't expect McGwiresque feats from him immediately. He needs plenty of work on his defense and baserunning. Remember, Deion Sanders hit .459 for Louisville. Don't declare Dunn the franchise's savior yet.
• PETE HARNISCH, right-hander
Why he's a key: Ideally, the Reds want to improve on their woeful first half and replenish their stockpile of talent. Harnisch could be crucial to either effort.
As the ace of the starting rotation, Harnisch should have been the pacesetter who would prolong winning streaks, end slumps and ease the bullpen's burden. But his elbow problems robbed him of that role as he went 1-3 with a 6.37 ERA before going on the disabled list.
A strong recovery by Harnisch, who's currently trying to rebuild his arm strength, would automatically restore much of the Reds' respectability. He wouldn't have to match the 8-2 record he posted after returning from the disabled list last year. Given the depths which the Reds inhabit, a .500 performance from Harnisch would suffice.
Should Harnisch thrive, the Reds might resume efforts to trade him, which was the scenario widely envisioned in spring training when he and the club failed to agree on a contract extension. Though Harnisch probably won't recover sufficiently to draw interest before the July 31 non-waiver trading deadline, he could have value as a stretch-drive acquisition for a contender seeking starting depth.
What could happen: Nothing, especially if Harnisch's arm trouble persists. Teams wont bother parting with even a low-level prospect if questions about the 12-year veteran's health remain. Last July, Harnisch threw back-to-back complete games at Denver's Coors Field and Houston's Enron Field, both pitchers' graveyards, yet no contender bothered making the Reds a serious offer for him.
Given their insatiable appetite for pitching, the Reds might still find a taker for Harnisch if he regains effectiveness. Sterling Hitchcock, San Diego's oft-injured lefty, recently resumed pitching and already has drawn trade interest. But there's little reason to believe that Harnisch, a year older at 34 and saddled with a lengthy history of physical woes, can reap a significant return for the Reds.
What to watch
• OFFENSE: Barry Larkin complained last year that the Reds displayed too many tendencies of an “American League” offense — sitting back and waiting for home runs. These days, that might be an improvement.
The good news for the Reds is that their offense should revive almost naturally as Ken Griffey Jr. and Aaron Boone continue to heal their respective injuries and gain consistency. The lineup would become even more potent if Larkin regains his health. The shortstop was enjoying an outstanding offensive season until his strained right groin dragged him down.
“When we had everybody in there, we were a pretty good club,” manager Bob Boone said. Of course, that hasn't happened often. The Reds were 6-7 — vastly better than their overall winning percentage — between June 15, when the aforementioned trio left the disabled list, until June 29, when Larkin was again sidelined. Boone started his projected Opening Day lineup only four times.
Healthy or weak, a lack of power and timing have stymied the Reds. They began Saturday ranked 13th in the National League with 81 home runs and have compiled a weak .244 average with runners in scoring position.
“When guys walk up there, I don't sense a homer coming,” Boone said.
It's difficult to sense anything with this club. “The whole is the sum of its parts” is a famous saying that doesn't apply to the Reds. In their case, the whole appears to be less than its parts. Alex Ochoa, Dmitri Young and Sean Casey began Saturday hitting .300 or better, with Aaron Boone close behind at .291. Cincinnati has revived its running game, ranking third in the National League with 67 stolen bases.
Yet the Reds rank 13th in scoring in the 16-team NL. When consistency's absent, so are the runs.
• STARTING PITCHING: Building on youthful promise
The Reds no longer have four rookies on their starting staff, which reflected their dire injury situation and lack of alternatives. But they're not done tinkering with their rotation. Thus, for the short term, the starters might keep struggling — Cincinnati ranks last in the NL and next-to-last in the majors in starters' innings. This would continue to tax the bullpen, which leads the majors in innings thrown.
“They've been a bright spot in our year and I don't want to kill them off,” manager Bob Boone said.
If the season's first half was characterized by raw youths such as Brian Reith rising from the minors to get a shot in the rotation, the rest of the year, or at least the start of this half, could be devoted to auditions by veterans hoping to revive their skills. Dennys Reyes, Jose Rijo and Harnisch, in no particular order, are likely to receive tests.
Reds management always has viewed Reyes as a potential 15-game winner and continued to do so even after the left-hander found a bullpen niche in 1999. There's no question that Reyes, with his impressive assortment of pitches, could excel as a starter. But doubts remain about his durability, given his arm problems. Should those persist, the Reds could be left wondering if Reyes can handle any role.
Skeptics may deride Rijo's comeback attempt as a stunt designed to rouse flagging fan interest. A 36-year-old scarred by five arm surgeries doesn't exactly fit in the Reds' grandiose plans to build a vibrant roster for the 2003 opening of Great American Ball Park. But given the injuries (Harnisch, Seth Etherton) and ineffectiveness (Osvaldo Fernandez), and youth that have impeded the rotation, Rijo's worth a try. If nothing else, his efforts provide a worthy example of determination and competitive spirit.
Maybe Harnisch is trying to pitch himself back into the trade market. Maybe he wants to learn if his arm has enough left to coax somebody into signing him after his contract expires this season. Either way, the Reds can use him.
Incumbent starters Elmer Dessens, Reitsma, Lance Davis and Jose Acevedo still have plenty to pitch for.
Dessens, a fourth or fifth starter on many teams but a mainstay on this staff, can solidify his status for the future.
The same can be said of the three rookies, though they have more room for growth and more excuses for struggling. Reitsma has the potential to develop into a No. 1 or 2 starter. Davis and Acevedo have shown signs of being decent complements.
“With the young kids, you're looking for consistency,” Boone said.
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