Sunday, June 03, 2001
Big bonuses up ante in draft
By John Fay
The Cincinnati Enquirer
The June Draft used to be pretty easy for baseball teams to figure out. You picked the best player. You gave him a reasonable bonus, and he signed. Ken Griffey Jr., perhaps the best No.1 pick ever, signed for $160,000 in 1987. This year's top pick could demand as much as $10 million.
Baseball salaries have increased significantly from 1987, but they haven't gone up 62 fold.
“I think one of the facets that's overlooked,” Reds chief operating officer John Allen said, “(is that) it's having an impact on the small-market teams.
That's why the Minnesota Twins will probably pass on Southern California pitcher Mark Prior. Scouts agree that Prior is the top prospect in draft, but with $10 million price tag, can the small-market Twins afford him?
The Reds don't pick until 20th in the draft. They won't have to pay their top pick anywhere near $10 million. But they paid bonuses of nearly $2 million to their top picks each of the last three years.
That's more than the average player on the active roster makes.
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WHERE ARE THEY NOW?
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Here's an update on the Reds' top four picks from last season:
1. David Espinosa, SS, Miami Gulliver Prep, Single-A Dayton: He's hittin .243 with nine doubles and 15 RBI in 49 games with 28 walks. He's made 28 errors.
1b. Dustin Moseley, RHP, Arkansas High, Texas, Dayton: He's 3-2 with a 5.04 ERA in 10 starts. He's allowed 66 hits in 55 innings with 35 strikeouts and 16 walks.
2. Dane Sardinha, C, Pepperdine U., Single-A Mudville: He's hitting .248 with two homers, 12 doubles and 21 RBI in 43 games.
2b. Ryan Snare, LHP, North Carolina, Dayton: He's 3-3 with a 4.18 ERA in eight starts. He's allowed 34 hits in 37 innings with 51 strikeouts and 13 walks.
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So when the Reds pick Tuesday, signability will be close to ability when it comes to judging players.
“We'll do the best we can within our budget to sign our players,” Reds general manager Jim Bowden said. “We take finances into account in everything we do.”
Bowden would not say whether the Reds' budget for signing bonuses has changed from last year. Neither would Allen, saying “We've got a budget and we won't go over it.”
The last four drafts have demonstrated how difficult it can be for the Reds to sign top picks. The Bengals have had a comparitively easy time signing their No.1 picks. Consider the Reds' recent history with first rounders:
• In 1997, the Reds took third baseman Brandon Larson with the 14th pick in the draft. Larson was represented by agent Scott Boras, the man whose tough negotiating stances have contributed greatly to the esclation of bonuses. Negotiations dragged on until July16. Larson ended up signing for $1.22 million.
• In 1998, the Reds took outfielder Austin Kearns with the seventh pick. They signed July 30 for $1.95 million.
• In 1998, the Reds took left-hander pitcher Ty Howington. Again, contract talks were a lot like those between Comair and its pilots. Howington finally signed on Aug. 28 for $1.75 million, but it was too late for him to play minor league ball that year.
• Last year, the Reds took shortstop with David Espinosa with the 23rd pick in the draft. Espinosa and the Reds' second-round pick, catcher Dane Sardinha, were both Boras' clients. Neither signed until Sept.1.
That only came after the Reds structured their deals as multiyear major league contracts. The move was unprecedented, but it also carried risk.
“There's two potential issues,” Reds asssistant general manager Doc Rodgers said. “You have to add them to the 40-man roster, and those spots are valuable. The other thing you put their option years on an accelerated pace.”
The Reds risk losing Sardinha after three years if he's not in the in major leauges, and Espinosa after four years.
The 40-man roster issue already came into play. John Riedling was put on the 60-day disabled list with a shoulder strain. The move opened up a spot on the 40-man for Chris Nichting. If Espinosa and Sardinha weren't on the 40-man roster, that would not have been necessary.
The other issue could come into play particularly with Espinosa. He's been averaging more than an error every other game at Single A Dayton. In four years, he'll only be 23 years old — young for a major leaguer.
Larson played two years of college baseball and four years of the minors. He struggled so badly in his first callup to the Reds that it lasted only 14 games.
At least, there's hope Larson will be a productive big leaguer. Of the Reds' three previous picks — Chad Mottola, C.J. Nitkowski and John Oliver — only Nitkowski stuck in the bigs. He's a middle reliever for the Detroit Tigers. (He was part of the David Wells trade in 1995.)
So the draft is always risky. Last year, the Reds raised the stakes. The only reason Espinosa and Sardinha were available, they say, is because teams were afraid to take them because of the Boras Factor.
“We think we got three top-30 players,” Rodgers said, “when you throw in Dustin Moseley.”
Moseley, a right-handed pitcher, was a “sandwich pick,” between the first and second as compensation for free agent Juan Guzman. Moseley, by the way, signed in September.
The Reds don't expect a repeat of last year this year.
“I think last year was an aberration,” Reds director of scouting Kasey McKeon said. “You had Scott representing them. But we knew the make-up of the players. We know they wanted to play.”
But, because of their position, the Reds know some players with low signability factors could drop their way.
“That's the tough part with being in the second half of the draft,” Rodgers said. “Of all the players you expect to go in the top five or 10, some end up available. You got to see everyone.”
Baseball America projects Jason Arnold, a right-handed pitcher from Central Florida, as the Reds' top pick. Arnold was 13-2 with a 1.84 ERA this year.
“He's in the mix,” Rodgers said. “I've seen him myself.”
The draft is considered strong in pitching.
“When it comes to pitching, you always have a need,” Rodgers said. “We'll probably go with the best player available. If we're loaded at that position, we have to adjust.”
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Big bonuses up ante in draft
