Tuesday, May 15, 2001
Could Reds' swoon seal fate?
Losses, injuries mounting in critical early stretch
By Chris Haft
The Cincinnati Enquirer
![[img]](http://reds.enquirer.com/img/photos/2001/05/051501rivera_100x208.jpg) Ruben Rivera, who homered Monday night, has been a pleasant surprise. (AP photo) | ZOOM | |
Labeling the Reds unfit for contender's status would be unfair and premature. But they clearly need help to arrive soon, whether it's in the form of fresh talent or better luck.
The Reds' current slide has created the impression that a malaise has gripped the team. The Reds, who lost to Houston 6-4 Monday, have dropped 10 of their last 12 games since ascending into a tie for first place May 1.
We're not playing as well as we'd like to, manager Bob Boone said Monday.
Meanwhile, the atmosphere at Cinergy Field grows more toxic. Entering Monday, paid attendance was down 131,644 from the corresponding period last year. Many who did bother to show up arrived in a foul mood, as shown by the frequent booing the Reds have endured at home.
I've certainly noticed it, Reds chief operating officer John Allen said. I've seen it in other ballparks, too. I don't think Cinergy is alone in that. I don't know why it has started all of a sudden. I don't really ever remember hearing a lot of it last year.
Ultimately, smaller crowds mean lower revenues, which means stagnant payroll growth and greater difficulty in retaining key players a pressing issue for the Reds, who have tried to sign several players to multiyear deals.
For the short-term, a few victories would calm fans and ease worries. This inevitably returns the focus to baseball.
Mid-May is too early for alarm. Though the Reds occupy fifth place, they trail first-place St. Louis by only 4 1/2 games. Yet the Reds would be wise to remember that they spent most of last year thinking they were on the brink of jelling. Reality finally struck when they fell below .500 in August.
Improvement now, while the Reds are in the midst of playing 22 of 25 games against Central opponents, would be timely. It also might be a severe challenge, given the injuries that have befallen the team.
You just have to deal with it, Boone said. You try to tread water until you can get your starting team out there.
Cincinnati needs no help identifying its problems:
The starting rotation must gain consistency, or even a new member or two. Boone has repeated his belief that a pitching staff ideally must be in order by the end of May. With Opening Day starter Pete Harnisch on the disabled list, the Reds may struggle to make that theoretical deadline.
Conflicting signs are evident. Reds starters were 0-6 in 13 games before Monday's. They also recorded four consecutive quality starts (three or fewer earned runs allowed in six or more innings) before Jim Brower lasted one-third of an inning Sunday night and Chris Reitsma struggled in Monday's seventh inning.
I think we're getting there, Boone said. With Pete not being in the mix, that's certainly a factor. But we're settling into it.
Even if Ken Griffey Jr. needs more time to recover from his hamstring injury, the Reds must learn when their star center fielder can return. The Reds could receive some definite answers by next week, after Griffey undergoes his next strength test.
You look at where we are right now and insert a Ken Griffey Jr., who's swinging like he can, into all of those games. Then they're not one-run games, Boone said. The team we think can compete has Griffey in the middle of the mix.
Shortstop Barry Larkin, who has thrived in the lead off spot, must find some way to heal his troublesome groin. The Reds can function defensively without Larkin, but they struggle offensively without him.
As Larkin gets more healthy, we'll continue to play better, Boone said.
These factors might seem distinct yet are subtly related. By coincidence, they involve Cincinnati's three highest-paid players.
If the Reds remain competitive within the division or wild-card race yet determine that Harnisch's right elbow will continue to bother him, they'll likely intensify their efforts to trade for a pitcher. Yet they'd be reluctant to trade Dmitri Young or Michael Tucker, the outfielders most likely to depart in a deal, if Griffey remains sidelined for long. And if Larkin's appearances are limited, the Reds will need all the offense they can get particularly from Young, their most proven hitter.
Other elements come and go. Cincinnati's defense, which had been shockingly poor, has improved. Offen sive production will continue to rise, as it did during the 5-1 road trip April 24-29, and fall, as it has more recently. Baserunning gaffes, which have multiplied recently, must be limited.
Given Cincinnati's league-low 29 home runs, over-eager running almost can be expected.
You just talk and use mistakes as an opportunity to learn, Boone said. We're trying to make things happen a little bit too much with our legs and we need it to happen a little more with our bats.
The Reds also need to settle on a plan regarding the celebrated Deion Sanders, who was guilty of defensive misplays in his last two starts. Since then, the cornerback/outfielder has been benched for three games in a row.
For now, Boone emphasizes that Sanders is a work in progress. If Sanders stays with the team all season, Boone and his staff will face the task of developing him while trying to win games, which won't be easy.
Aside from the hitters who have hovered around .300 (Alex Ochoa, Sean Casey, Aaron Boone, Larkin, Tucker and Young) and the usually effective pitching of Reitsma and Danny Graves, the Reds' brightest developments have gone largely unnoticed.
Outfielder Ruben Rivera has begun to shed his reputation as an underachiever. More of left-hander Dennys Reyes' potential has emerged. Reliever Mark Wohlers has approached the form he displayed when he was a premier closer with Atlanta in the mid-1990s. Donnie Sadler just might solidify the bench.
The value of those subtleties tend to emerge over time. But the Reds might run out of time if their fortunes don't improve in more obvious ways.
Said Boone: There are a lot of good things happening here that aren't necessarily showing up in the record. Ultimately, it comes down to winning it, or who cares?
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