The regular season's final week could mark the last days in a Reds uniform for a handful of players whose projected 2001 salaries will not fit into management's tight payroll budget.

        Twelve Reds will become eligible for salary arbitration, the process that virtually guarantees players huge pay increases. Though the Reds' 2001 payroll hasn't been established, management has shown no inclination to increase it significantly above this year's level of around $45 million.

ARBITRATION OUTLOOK
Here's a list of the key players among the 12 arbitration-eligible Reds, with their 2000 salaries and the wages they could expect in 2001 if they were offered arbitration (salaries in millions except for six-figure incomes):
Player	Salary	Projection
Pokey Reese, 2B	$1.95	$3.25
Dmitri Young, LF	$1.95	$3.5
Scott Sullivan, P	$1.1	$2.0
Chris Stynes, INF	$375,000	$1.1
Alex Ochoa, OF	$862,500	$2.0
Ron Villone, P	$1.6	$2.4
Steve Parris, P	$1.4	$2.75
Sean Casey, 1B	$400,000	$2.25
Danny Graves, P	$400,000	$2.5
Others eligible for salary arbitration: Pitchers Osvaldo Fernandez and Dennys Reyes and outfielder Brian Hunter. Reds will decline to pick up Hunter's 2001 option of $3 million. They instead will pay him a $250,000 buyout and try to re-sign him.

        “It's very likely that of the 12, two or three may have to be traded to allow us to fit under our major-league payroll budget,” Reds general manager Jim Bowden said. “But we'll deal with that once we get the (budget).”

        With nearly $20 million committed to center fielder Ken Griffey Jr. and shortstop Barry Larkin, the Reds have limited economic flexibility. Unless chief executive officer Carl Lindner approves a payroll hike, trading arbitration-eligible players is the only way the Reds can stay within their budget.

        The arbitration-eligible group includes four players — first baseman Sean Casey, relief ace Danny Graves, second baseman Pokey Reese and left fielder Dmitri Young — who are essential to the Reds' youthful, skilled nucleus. Through a conservative estimate, this quartet can be anticipated to earn raises of at least $6 million, wiping out most of the money Cincinnati saved by trad ing right fielder Dante Bichette to Boston on Aug. 31. Bichette was due to earn $6.5 million next year.

        Bowdenis unlikely to trade any of these players, though he might listen to proposals for Casey or Young. Trading the hugely popular Casey, of course, might incite a riot staged by outraged fans.

        Other valuable performers also qualify for arbitration: Scott Sullivan, the club's top set-up reliever; Chris Stynes, who's hitting .336 while replacing Aaron Boone at third base; Alex Ochoa, the multitalented outfielder; and veteran pitchers Steve Parris and Ron Villone, who have combined to win 21 games.

        This is the group that appears most vulnerable to changing addresses.

        The club's braintrust might decide that rookie John Riedling (3-0, 1.26 ERA) already is poised to assume Sullivan's role. Stynes' duties conceivably could fall to either Juan Castro or Chris Sexton, who are superior to him defensively but not offensively.

        Ochoa probably won't go anywhere, though management will think hard about the wisdom of paying him and Michael Tucker about $3.5 million or more combined. Tucker's already signed for next year at $1.8 million. The fate of Parris and Villone might depend on whether Bowden acquires another starting pitcher.

        The players themselves, who begin a superfluous three-game series tonight at Milwaukee, are well aware of the mini-purge that lies ahead.

        Ask Stynes. He was eminently affordable at his 2000 salary of $375,000. But his excellent season could enable him to double or even triple his pay through arbitration. Yet most teams would be reluctant to pay a utilityman $1 million or close to it.

        “I think that's pretty obvious to everyone. It's too bad, but that's the way it works,” Stynes said.

        This will be an annual problem for the Reds as long as the likes of Casey, Graves, Reese and Young remain on the roster. Signing them to multiyear contracts is one way to suppress future costs. Though Bowden said he has explored this possibility, the impasse in negotiations has forced the club to resort to year-to-year deals.

        “A lot of these young players feel they should be paid in the range of the Larkins and Griffeys. That's not really consistent with their performances to date,” Bowden said.

        “The Griffeys and Larkins have put up pretty good numbers for a long time. Some of our young players, who have never had a single season compared to some of the seasons Larkin and Griffey have had, have asked for money in that range. That doesn't make economic sense to us. We feel we can sign them through the arbitration system for a lot less money than what they're asking for in multiyear contracts.”

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