Friday, February 11, 2000
HR record could fall here
BY MIKE DeCOURCY
The Cincinnati Enquirer
With Ken Griffey Jr. in a Reds uniform and a new ballpark planned, it is tempting to consider whether the next decade might bring one of baseball's most compelling records to Cincinnati.
Rob Dibble believes it can happen. He thinks Junior can surpass Mark McGwire's 70 home runs.
“With the right field at Riverfront and all the fastballs Junior's going to see, he could be launching home runs left and right,” said Dibble, the former Reds reliever who is now co-host on Dan Patrick's daily ESPN radio show.
The statistical focus with Griffey has, in recent years, regarded the possibility he could make a serious run at Hank Aaron's career record of 755 home runs. After 11 seasons, Griffey has 398 home runs, and he will cruise past the 400 mark while just 30 years old. Aaron has said he considers Griffey the most likely current player to break his record.
Dibble figures the shift to the fastball-oriented National League, the lefty-friendly Cinergy Field ballpark and the increasingly deep Reds lineup will benefit Griffey's effort.
“In the American League, everybody goes 3-2 in the count; you almost bore hitters to death. The NL has none of that,” Dibble said. “The way guys are going to challenge him and want to get Ken Griffey out — I would want to challenge him — he'll be able to win 70 times a year.”
NBC's Bob Costas, a passionate baseball historian, believes several factors could influence Griffey's chase: health, the ability to sustain his prime, whether Cinergy and the new Reds ballpark are as home-run friendly as the Seattle King dome, what McGwire might do to the record before Griffey arrives, and how important becoming the home run king might be to Griffey.
“From a distance, he seems to be someone who is not as driven by a place in history,” Costas said. “Aaron saw the finish line, and it mattered to him, for baseball reasons and for social reasons. Griffey's desire to keep grinding might not be the same.
“I think he always gives 100 percent as a player, but I think it's for that game, that season, rather than some career thing.”
It is possible the record-holder could become McGwire before Griffey completes his pursuit. In the past five years, McGwire has averaged 57 home runs. If he were to continue at that rate, he could pass Aaron early in the 2004 season.
That would require the continued production of incredible home run numbers at an advanced age.
Costas said it is premature to dismiss McGwire. “What he's done so far has defied all conventional wisdom,” Costas said. “Who knows?”
At 64 home runs a year, McGwire would be in Babe Ruth's company near the close of the 2002 season and beyond Aaron around mid-summer 2003.
“If McGwire were to get to 800, that wouldn't necessarily be out of Griffey's reach,” Costas said. “But he's still got to average 40 homers a year for the next 10 years. Yikes!”
Excluding 1995, when he played only 72 games because of injury, Griffey has averaged 49 home runs over the past six seasons — and that includes 1994, when he was limited to 111 games and 433 at-bats because of the players' strike. In his last five full seasons, the average is 51.
At that pace, he would need another seven seasons to reach the 755 mark. Griffey would be approaching his 36th birthday at that point. McGwire, still 233 home runs short of Aaron, turned 36 in October.
“If I'm in the NL Central as a fan, I'm loving baseball right now,” Dibble said. “I'm so thrilled for the city of Cincinnati.”
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