Friday, February 11, 2000
Are Reds good enough to win?
BY MIKE BALL
The Cincinnati Enquirer
So how will Ken Griffey Jr. affect the balance of power in the NL Central? For starters, he'll add to the division's star power.
ESPN's Peter Gammons calls the NL Central the Heartland Division because, besides Chicago and Houston, it is basically a collection of modest midwest markets. But with the addition of Griffey, the Central now arguably possesses baseball's three biggest stars: Griffey, the Cubs' Sammy Sosa and St. Louis' Mark McGwire.
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AND THE WINNER IS ...
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• 3-1: ASTROS. The losses of Hampton and Everett will hurt, but they've won the title three straight years. It stays with Bagwell and Biggio until proven otherwise.
• 5-1: REDS. Larkin, Casey, Griffey, Bichette. Solid nucleus. But will young position players and bullpen improve? And what about that rotation?
• 6-1: CARDINALS. McGwire's homers haven't mattered because of the pitching. They've added Andy Benes, Pat Hentgen and Darryl Kile. Fine, but their 1999 ERAs were 4.81, 6.61 and 4.79.
• 10-1: PIRATES. They have lots of good pieces. Brian Giles, Jason Kendall, Kris Benson. But they have holes, too.
• 15-1: CUBS. This team may actually be the division's most improved. Added Eric Young, Ricky Gutierrez, Damon Buford and Ismael Valdes. Then again, look where they started.
• 18-1: BREWERS. Somehow they figured they'd improve their team by trading their best player, Jeff Cirillo. Would have been better had Miller Park been ready.
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Those three combined for 368 home runs the last two seasons, an average of 61 homers per man per season.
“It's exciting for baseball, in particular the Central Division,” Fox Sports Net analyst Kevin Kennedy said. “Everybody always expects the stars will always go to large markets. But it's not always the biggest market if there are other things involved. McGwire re-signed in St. Louis because he liked it there.”
The three also are probably baseball's biggest draws. The Cardinals drew a club-record 3,225,334 in '99, 40,827 per game; the Cubs drew 2,813,854, a 36,075 average.
The Cardinals and Cubs also were baseball's top two road attractions last season. The Cardinals drew an average of 35,703; the Cubs 34,575.
The Reds had 12 home games against the Cardinals and Cubs. The average for those games was 30,468; the average for their other 70 home games was 24,222.
The Mariners? They were the fifth-biggest road draw overall and second in the American League at 30,585, despite a 79-83 record.
Houston, which doesn't lack star power itself with Jeff Bagwell and Craig Biggio, drew 2,706,017, a 33,408 average. That figures to increase this season with the opening of Enron Field.
Those figures all could get a boost when Griffey comes to town, and the Reds figure to easily surpass last season's total of 2,061,222 (25,137).
The arrival of Griffey means a dozen McGwire vs. Griffey matchups, a dozen McGwire vs. Sosa matchups and a dozen Griffey vs. Sosa matchups. That's 36 games featuring the game's top three sluggers.
With new ballparks due in the next three years in Milwaukee, Pittsburgh, and presumably Cincinnati, the NL Central is evolving into a glamour division.
“The Central is very interesting,” said ESPN analyst Dave Campbell. “Houston's come back to the pack, with (Mike) Hampton and (Carl) Everett leaving. That's got to bring them back some. The plus is, they get (Moises) Alou back.
“You never know if (Griffey) is going to put (the Reds) over the top. Obviously, they have to fill the five spots in the rotation. They'll get an upgrade in center field, even though many people believe (Mike) Cameron has a pretty high ceiling.
“I think St. Louis has really upgraded with (Pat) Hentgen and (Andy) Benes. We'll have to wait and see on (Darryl) Kile. They've put themselves squarely in the mix.
“The Cubs have upgraded some. I wouldn't think the Cubs are going to make that big jump (to contend). Pittsburgh's young players have gotten a year older. Milwaukee's the only also-ran in that division.
“The biggest word going into spring training is if. if, if, if ...”
Here's a breakdown of the Central shakedown entering the 2000 season:
Reds
A team that won 96 games adds a player who had an “off” year, hitting .285 with 48 homers, 134 RBI, 349 total bases, 91 walks and 24 stolen bases.
How will it help?
• Defense: Cameron was solid in center field but had a penchant for making the great play and messing up the easy one. Griffey, who won his 10th Gold Glove last season, makes all the plays. An up-the-middle defense of shortstop Barry Larkin, second baseman Pokey Reese and Griffey matches any in baseball.
• Offense: Obviously, Griffey is a threat to go deep every at-bat. But unlike last year's slugger (Greg Vaughn), Griffey can do more things. Despite his relatively low batting average last season, he had an on-base percentage of .384. He received an AL-high 17 intentional walks. Not only will he take the pressure off other hitters in the lineup, but he will be on base for Dante Bichette and Sean Casey.
Griffey's left-handed bat will balance the lineup, enabling the Reds to bat right-left-right-left in the middle of the order. His left-handed power, along with that of Casey and catcher Eddie Taubensee, will suit the Reds well in the Central. Of the projected starters of the five Central teams, only one — Pittsburgh's Chris Peters — is left-handed.
Griffey hit only .229 with eight homers and 27 RBI against lefties.
• Pitching: Losing Tomko diminishes the depth of the staff. Veteran Mark Portugal (7-12, 5.52 ERA with Boston) goes from a veteran insurance policy/middle man to a possible place in the rotation.
Keeping reliever Dennys Reyes allows the bullpen to reamain intact. He and Gabe White (1-2, 4.43) will be the left-handed set-up men.
Keeping Scott Williamson (12-7, 2.41, 19 saves as NL Rookie of the Year) out of the deal leaves the Reds some flexibility; he could stay in the bullpen or move to the rotation. He was strictly a starter in the minor leagues.
The Reds had a 3.98 ERA last season, fourth best in the NL. Their 11 shutouts, 55 saves and 1,309 hits allowed were league bests.
While the depth of the starting rotation is harmed, a full season from Denny Neagle may offset the loss of Tomko. On the disabled list twice, Neagle was 0-3 in six games before the All-Star break. He went 6-0 with a 2.20 ERA in his final seven starts.
Houston Astros
Most franchises point to a new ballpark with hopes of benefiting from increased revenues. The Astros have gone the other way. With Enron Field opening, the Astros' major moves all have been salary driven.
They traded 22-game winner Hampton and outfielder Derek Bell to the Mets for young pitcher Octavio Dotel and outfielder Roger Cedeno. Everett, who busted out with a .325, 25 HR, 108 RBI and 27 stolen bases season, was shipped to the Red Sox for minor-league shortstop Adam Everett.
The lineup still revolves around All-Stars Craig Biggio and Jeff Bagwell, but two of the pivotal position players, outfielders Moises Alou and Richard Hidalgo, are coming off major surgeries.
Third baseman Ken Caminiti turns 37 in April and has a history of injuries. Houston let shortstop Rickey Gutierrez go as a free agent, leaving it with journeyman Tim Bogar. Catcher Mitch Meluskey is unproven.
Jose Lima (21 wins) and Shane Reynolds (16) are a solid 1-2 punch, but the rotation falls off afterward. Dotel is a tantalizing talent but had a 5.08 ERA last season. Chris Holt was 5-13 with a 4.66 ERA.
Houston's most significant problem may involve Scott Elarton, a promising talent. He started and relieved and had a 3.48 ERA in 124 innings but had offseason shoulder surgery and is not fully recovered.
Closer Billy Wagner is the NL's best, but the set-up situation is muddled.
The Astros still have a lot of talent and experience — they've won the Central three straight years — but will be pressed to match last season's 97 victories.
St. Louis Cardinals
The Cards have been perhaps the most entertaining bad team in baseball history the last two seasons, thanks to McGwire. Injuries have hammered the Cards the past two seasons, particularly the pitching.
The Cards have moved to change that. They added veteran pitchers Pat Hentgen (a former Cy Young winner) and Darryl Kile and Andy Benes. With those three and Kent Bottenfield, the Cards have four starters who have won as many as 18 games in a season since 1996.
Hentgen (11-12, 4.79 with Blue Jays), Kile (8-13, 6.61 with Rockies) and Benes (13-12, 4.81 with Diamondbacks) all come off poor seasons.
They join Bottenfield and top prospect Rick Ankiel. The return of Alan Benes, who missed two seasons to injury, and Matt Morris, who missed one year, could help.
The bullpen could be troublesome. Dave Veres, also acquired from Colorado, should be the closer. He had 31 saves last season but batters hit .290 against him and he had a 5.14 ERA. Getting out of Coors Field should help Veres, but the set-up men are journeymen such as Garrett Stephenson, Mark Thompson and spring training invitee John Hudek.
The Cards got the leadoff man they needed in second baseman Fernando Vina, whom they acquired from Milwaukee. A healthy Ray Lankford provides solid protection for McGwire, and third baseman Fernado Tatis had a breakout year (.298, 34 homers, 107 RBI, 21 SB).
The Cards need more from oft-injured Eric Davis (.257 in 58 games), who will start in right, and left fielder J.D. Drew (.242 in 104 games), who was a major disappointment.
The Cards appear much improved — they were 13th in hitting, 11th in pitching, ninth in saves, and 12th in fielding — but still have many questions.
Plus, McGwire has been healthy for three years. What are the odds for a fourth?
Pittsburgh Pirates
The Bucs have a great young owner, Kevin McClatchy, who sits in the stands. Pillars are rising for PNC Park nearly one year to the day after the team lobbied state lawmakers for funding — it opens next season.
The Pirates have rising stars in catcher Jason Kendall, outfielder Brian Giles and pitcher Kris Benson. Trouble is, they have holes, too.
They had to sign Wil Cordero (.299 in 54 games with Cleveland) to add a right-handed bat. He'll play right field.
Young Aramis Ramirez is a question at third (.117 in 18 games) and Pat Meares is a journeyman shortstop coming off major surgery.
The top of the rotation is relatively solid with Benson (11-14, 4.07), Francisco Cordova (8-10, 4.48) and Jason Schmidt (13-11, 4.19). But the bullpen is a mess, although it does contain good arms. Mike Williams (3-4, 5.09, 23 saves) is the early guess for a closer.
Chicago Cubs
The Cubs may be the most improved team in the division. Trouble is, they start 30 games off the pace.
Veterans Gary Gaetti and Mickey Morandini are gone, and Don Baylor is the new manager.
Baylor will turn up the pressure on Sosa to be a more complete player. Sosa has 129 homers and 299 RBI the past two seasons, but the team has been dreadful.
The biggest break the Cubs got was the Dodgers wanting to dump second baseman Eric Young's salary; that enabled Chicago to acquire Young (51 steals in 119 games; the Cubs had 60) and front-line starter Ismael Valdes (9-14, 3.98).
Other newcomers are catcher Joe Girardi, third baseman Shane Andrews, outfielder Damon Buford and shortstop Gutierrez.
Valdes, Kevin Tapani (6-12, 5.83) and Jon Lieber (10-11, 4.07) are veteran arms, but a return of injured phenom Kerry Wood could give them a huge boost.
Rick Aguilera is the closer but is past his prime.
Milwaukee Brewers
A crane accident cost the Brewers a full season of Miller Park, which is a shame because that would have been the best attraction of the season.
The Brewers traded their best player, third baseman Jeff Cirillo (.326, 15 HR, 88 RBI), and lost catcher Dave Nilsson to the Japanese League.
They did add young arms Jamey Wright (4-3, 4.87 with Colorado) and Jimmy Haynes (7-12, 6.34 with Oakland). Closer Bob Wickman (3.39, 37 saves) is outstanding.
The biggest offensive threats are left fielder Geoff Jenkins (.313, 21 HR, 82 RBI) and right fielder Jeromy Burnitz (.270, 33 HR, 103 RBI).
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