Tuesday, December 07, 1999Reds must decide on Vaughn, Guzman
Offer arbitration today or receive no compensation
BY CHRIS HAFT
The Cincinnati Enquirer
Though Greg Vaughn and Juan Guzman are almost certainly finished playing for the Reds, one game is left. Its stakes are high.
VAUGHN
GUZMANThe Reds must decide today whether to offer salary arbitration to Vaughn, Guzman and their other free agents.
Reds General Manager Jim Bowden refused Monday to divulge the team's plans.
The Reds must offer Vaughn and Guzman arbitration if they are to be compensated for losing them to free agency. The obvious risk is that Vaughn and Guzman will accept arbitration, which would dangerously inflate the team's payroll. Bowden already has deemed Vaughn and Guzman too expensive to re-sign.
Both are among the top players available in a relatively thin free-agent market. If Vaughn or Guzman signs with another club, the Reds would receive two compensatory choices in next June's amateur draft: a first- or second-round selection (depending on the 1999 finish of the signing club) and an additional pick between the first two rounds.
The Reds are more likely to offer arbitration to Guzman, who as a pitcher is more likely to attract suitors in free agency. Even if he accepted the Reds' offer, they could trade him easily.
Because Vaughn has drawn less interest, despite his 45 homers and 118 RBI last season, the Reds might be less willing to gamble on him.
Vaughn, who earned $5.6 million this year, might be able to double his salary in arbitration, a process which limits players to one-year contracts. Vaughn's perceived demands for a multiyear deal worth between $8 million and $10 million per season have squelched teams' overt interest.
Eric Goldschmidt, Vaughn's agent, declined to say what his client might do if he were offered arbitration.
“He could get more years signing somewhere else,” Goldschmidt said. “But he could get more dollars on a one-year salary arbitration (settlement).”
Guzman, who earned $5.25 million last year, is only 24-34 since 1997. But his strong finish with Cincinnati (6-3 with a 3.03 ERA after arriving from Baltimore in a July 31 trade) and the inflated salary structure for pitch ers assures him of an increase to at least $7 million annually, whether it's in arbitration or through free agency.
Factors to be weighed include:
• Age. Vaughn (34) and Guzman (33) are at the stage where they'd prefer multiyear deals.
• Next year. Barring trades or sudden contract extensions, the 2000 class of free agents is expected to be star-studded, featuring Seattle's Ken Griffey Jr., Cleveland's Manny Ramirez, Toronto's Carlos Delgado, Baltimore's Mike Mussina and the New York Yankees' Andy Pettitte. Vaughn and Guzman would command lower salaries in this mix.
The Reds are not likely to offer arbitration to their other free agents, pitcher Steve Avery and Mark Wohlers, because both were injured during the season. If they aren't offered arbitration, it would prevent them from negotiating with the Reds until April 30, essentially finishing their careers in Cincinnati.
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