Sunday, September 12, 1999
Reds could win 95, miss playoffs
BY JOHN FAY
The Cincinnati Enquirer
The Reds have picked a bad year to be good. At their current pace, they'll win 95 games and go nowhere. Since the inception of the wild card, no National League team has won more than 92 games and stayed home.
“It's tough,” Sean Casey said. “We're 25 games over .500, and we're two games behind. You'd think if you're 25 games over, you'd be in first a couple of games up.”
Consider this: If the Reds do win 95 games, it would be the most since the 1976 team won 102.
To win 95, the Reds have to go 11-9 the rest of the way. If they go 13-7, they'll win 97 games. That's still no guarantee of a playoff spot.
“That would be tough to swallow,” Casey said. “But all we can do it keep winning.”
The National League is extremely top-heavy this year. Only six teams — the Reds, Atlanta, New York, Houston, Arizona and San Francisco — are playing over .500.
“In the American League, we'd be in,” Reds General Manager Jim Bowden said.
Not officially, but the Reds would be 31/2 games ahead in the Wild Card.
But the Reds are in the NL where the gap between the good teams and the bad teams is dramatic.
“We have five teams that are superior,” Bowden said. “There's lack of parity this year.”
The Arizona Diamondbacks have the NL West won. The Reds are battling Houston for NL Central and the New York Mets for the Wild Card.
Barry Larkin says it's no surprise who the other four teams are at the head of the NL class.
“Atlanta and Houston have been there,” Larkin said. “The Mets have been building, and Arizona went out and bought some free agents.”
The Reds, to a man, recite the mantra “All we can do is win.” But the reality that winning alone might not be enough is creeping in.
The Reds have won eight of nine. They've gone from 21/2 games behind to the Astros to 31/2 games back.
“It's tough,” Casey said. “Every time we win, the Astros win.”
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