Tuesday, November 24, 1998

BY GEOFF HOBSON
The Cincinnati Enquirer

Those close to Major League Baseball economics publicly warned Marge Schott Monday not to expect the Reds' value to balloon because of an impending sale of the Yankees to Cablevision Systems Corp., that puts the New York franchise at about $800 million.

Schott, Reds president and CEO, reportedly wants $78 million for 5.5 shares of the club, making the Reds worth about $215 million. Sources in and out of MLB, which seeks a sale by Jan. 1, estimate the Reds at $130 million. A 17-percent hike for controlling shares makes her investment $50 million.

"Her price could get a bump, but it's not going to affect the Reds until they're out of (Cinergy Field)," said Smith College professor Andrew Zimbalist, noting the Reds won't leave until 2003. "It's going to impact only the eight elite markets, where they're making $140-$170 million."

Northern Kentucky developer Jerry Carroll, a Schott friend, classified her Monday as "a reluctant seller" after a weekend visit.

"She wants to do what's best for the baseball fans of Cincinnati, but she also thinks there's a lot of people who liked what she did," Carroll said. "She's ready to move on, but she's going to do it at her price."

Carroll said the Yankee deal has no effect on the Reds because of market size. He values her shares at about $60 million, plus a little more. "Because she's reluctant, she'll need a bonus," Carroll said.

Dean Bonham, head of a Denver group that values franchises, says three factors keep the Reds in the $130 million range as Yankees soar:

A new Manhattan ballpark with guaranteed 3 million fans annually. Yankee local radio and TV deal generates about $50 million annually to the Reds' $5 million.

The Yankee name is dominant brand name in pro sports.

"It's a bittersweet day for baseball," Zimbalist said. "The big and small markets are polarized, and the Yankee sale heightens the disparity."

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