Monday, July 6, 1998

BY JOHN ERARDI
The Cincinnati Enquirer

In 1995 the Reds routinely played in front of large crowds at home, some of them were even a bit wild. (file photo) | ZOOM |

More than once in recent years, Reds officials have invoked the name of the Indians when asked what model they are following in their attempt to regain former glory.

Said Reds general manager Jim Bowden in January: "We're patterning ourselves after what (Indians General Manager) John Hart did in Cleveland in the early '90s."

So how well are the Reds -- who are trying to rebuild for a run at a world championship when their new stadium opens in 2002 -- following the Cleveland pattern?

The Indians' trade of their popular RBI machine, Joe Carter, to the San Diego Padres in the winter before the 1990 season, was a critical piece in the team's rebuilding process. In return for Carter, the Indians received minor-league phenom Carlos Baerga and Sandy Alomar, the two-time Minor League Player of the Year who was stuck behind Padres catcher Benito Santiago.

Alomar and Baerga became key members of the Indians who moved into Jacobs Field four years later. On Aug. 12, 1994, the Indians were one game behind the Chicago White Sox in the American League Central Division race when the season was ended by the players' strike.

NUMBERS GAME
Cincinnati Reds General Manager Jim Bowden says he is trying to build a contender here by following the plan used by the Cleveland Indians in the early 1990s. The Indians traded their best player, Joe Carter, for two prospects before the 1990 season; the Reds have traded thier top starter (Dave Burba), last two closers (Jeff Brantley, Jeff Shaw) and best bench player (Lenny Harris) since the end of last season. Here's a look at how the Indians' attendence grew with their success and how the Reds have done in the same years. Note: When Jacob's Field opened in 1994 the season was shortened by work stoppage.
Cleveland Indians
Year	W	L	GB	Pos.	Attendance
1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997	77 57 76 76 66 100 99 86	85 105 86 86 47 44 62 75	11 34 20 19 1 -- -- --	4th 7th 4th 6th 2nd 1st 1st 1st	1,225,241 1,051,863 1,224,274 2,177,908 1,995,174 2,842,725 3,318,174 3,404,750
Cincinnati Reds
Year	W	L	GB	Pos.	Attendance
1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997	91 74 90 73 66 85 81 76	71 88 72 89 48 59 81 86	-- 20 8 31 -- -- 7 8	1st 5th 2nd 5th 1st 1st 3rd 3rd	2,400,892 2,372,377 2,315,946 2,453,232 1,897,681 1,837,649 1,861,428 1,785,788

When the Carter trade was made, Indians fans didn't hang anybody in effigy or boycott Indians games. That's because the club had made it clear ahead of time what the plan was: to be ready to seriously contend for a World Championship when Jacobs Field opened in 1994. "But we also told people there would be growing pains, that we might take a step back in order to take two steps forward," said Bob DiBiasio, the Indians vice president of public relations. "We did OK the season after trading Carter (1990). We went 77-85 to get into fourth place (in the division). But the next season (1991) we lost 105 games."

Two years later (1993), a year before Jacobs Field opened, the Indians were ready to explode. Among the nucleus of young talent they had were Kenny Lofton, Sandy Alomar, Carlos Baerga, Albert Belle, Charles Nagy, and soon to arrive were Jim Thome and Manny Ramirez, who had been named to Baseball America's 12-man, minor-league dream team.

"Ramirez was a guy who had been tabbed for stardom by Mickey White, a former Reds scout who we lured away (from the Reds) in our effort to put together the best scouting department we possibly could," DiBiasio said.

Could the Reds' trade of popular closer Jeff Shaw to the Los Angeles Dodgers for Paul Konerko (who, before this season, was rated by Baseball America as the second-best prospect in all of baseball) and Dennis Reyes (who Baseball America rates as the fourth best pitching prospect in the Dodgers' organization) be the Reds' version of the Indians' Joe Carter deal?

Who knows? Konerko and Reyes have a long way to go to equal Baerga, now with the Mets, and Alomar, a Cleveland icon.

But the Reds have other marquee players they could trade: Bret Boone, who is having a great season, and Barry Larkin, who has been coming on strong after a bad start.

It's not easy, however, to trade for guys like Alomar and Baerga. Because of the way big-league salaries have skyrocketed, even well-heeled teams (Atlanta, for example) don't want to part with the best of their young, homegrown talent; they want to get these playes to the major leagues and sign them to long-term contracts. But, late last week, well before the Shaw-for-Konerko-and-Reyes was completed, Bowden hinted of what might be coming.

"We may make some unpopular trades, but that's the price you have to pay," Bowden said. "Players have streaks. Their value fluctuates even more than the stock market. Guys who nobody is interested in can get hot and suddenly everybody's interested in them."

Similar but different

Possibly the best piece of news for the Reds is that season-ticket holders have not deserted them.

"We're fortunate here," Reds managing executive John Allen said. "This is a great baseball town and it's why we're pleased (to have the new stadium deal that was announced last Wednesday). The fans have stayed with us. They aren't happy (about losing) and neither am I, but most of them understand (the rebuilding)."

Judging by how empty Cinergy Field is on many nights, it is clear that a good number of season-ticket holders aren't using their tickets. But they are still buying them.

And that's a revenue stream the Reds need to be able to pump money into scouting and development.

The Reds lack the "stable and proficient" ownership that is such a driving force behind any organization that tries to rebuild from the bottom up, says Andrew Zimbalist, the economics professor who wrote the book Baseball and Billions.

But the Reds do have some pluses, the experts say.

Even though they are in last place in the moribund National League Central division, the Reds apparently aren't going to have to hit rock bottom in revenue generation the way their model, the Cleveland Indians, did.

In 1985, the year before real-estate developer Richard Jacobs took over ownership of the Indians, the franchise's season-ticket base was down to 3,300 fans, and home attendance was only 655,000.

By comparison, the Reds' season ticket base this year is between 14,000 and 15,000 (down from almost 20,000 in the early 1990s) and the Reds' overall attendance will likely wind up in the 1.8 million range for the fifth straight season.

Here's the reason why season tickets are so important: Generally the walk-up crowd has done its walking up elsewhere since the Reds stopped being good in 1995.

The Reds were averaging 31,268 fans per game as recently as 1994; last year, they averaged only 22,322, almost a 30 percent drop. What is allowing the Reds to hold their own financially is the season-ticket base.

And, fortunately for the Reds, with a new ballpark on the horizon, corporations and individuals figure to hang on to their season tickets.

These are revenues the Reds must have if they are to rebuild. They are revenues that must go into identifying, nurturing and retaining talent. It's the Cleveland Indians blueprint, without the Cleveland Indians owner.

Jacobs, the Indians owner, infused capital into the farm system. The Reds, on the other hand, have gone a generation without an owner willing to spend to create and maintain a productive scouting and player development operation.

So the Reds have to do it a different way. They have to keep the major-league payroll lean, while still maintaining season ticket revenues, so they can build a team for 2002.

Since last year, the Reds have:

Added four full-time scouts for a total of 21. (The folks at Baseball America, the bible when it comes to assessing scouting and player development, say the Reds need several more top, experienced scouts to compete for talent with the better organizations.)

Instituted an accelerated program before spring training to help the development of young players.

Added a farm team to make up for the one they had to drop two years ago for financial reasons. The Reds are now up to six farm teams, one fewer than the Indians.

Reinstituted the post-season instructional league.

Added a scouting presence in Latin America that includes teams in Mexico and the Dominican Republic, and a soon-to-be baseball camp in the Dominican operated by former Reds star Jose Rijo.

"Latin America is key," said Indians farm director Mark Shapiro. "It's an important place to be in search of (less expensive) talent. And it's an important sign that the Reds are serious about their rebuilding plan."

The way the Reds are bankrolling these improvements is to slash the major-league payroll.

The Reds won't divulge what amount they will be in the black this year. But, judging by how much money the club has lost in recent years, and the amount the payroll was cut, and the way attendance has held the past couple of years, a reasonable estimate of this year's profit would be a few million dollars -- say, $4 million to $6 million.

On the horizon

As part of their continued effort to crank up scouting and player development, the Reds are considering:

Establishing a "high A-level" minor-league team and retaining one regular-level A team, rather than having two regular-level A teams as they do now.

Utilizing their spring-training complex in Sarasota, Fla., to field a minor-league team, as many major-league clubs do.

Adding a minor-league team.

Hiring a position - hitting coach at every minor-league level, instead of just at Triple-A and Double-A. (The Reds have pitching coaches at each minor-league level.)

Bowden and Allen agree on the need to build the major-league team through scouting and player development.

"It is the best money spent in baseball," Bowden said. "We can't let our major-league payroll affect the job we are doing in scouting and development. We've made it clear we want to have the best scouting and development in baseball."