BY SCOTT MacGREGOR
The Cincinnati Enquirer

Pete Harnisch, pitching against Pittsburgh Saturday, has been one of the bright spots of spring training. (AP photo) | ZOOM |

SARASOTA, Fla. - Five weeks ago, before the Reds' hitters made the word ''anemic'' too positive to describe their offense, manager Jack McKeon offered up this prediction in comparing the 1998 Reds to the '97 club:

''If they all produce the way we hope they will and if they're all healthy, we're going to be much better off with this lineup,'' McKeon said. ''When you look at this ballclub, we could be in the top five in the league in power.''

So much for that. With Opening Day two days away, the Reds' feeble performance at the plate this spring has shown they are more likely to be in the bottom five in just about every offensive category.

Of course, McKeon's statement came at that most optimistic of times in a baseball season, the beginning of spring training, before any exhibition games had been played and before Barry Larkin had to have surgery, before the Reds scored four runs or fewer in 16 of their past 18 games. And it may still come true - we haven't even started the regular season yet, after all - but it's looking less and less the case.

No one puts much credence in spring training statistics, since the games mean nothing and the spring season has an entirely different pace. But no one can be happy about the Reds' poor production, which leaves serious questions as things start to count on Tuesday.

McKeon says he's not concerned - yet. Check back with him in about a week.

''I've seen teams hit great in spring training and not hit at all during the regular season - and vise-versa,'' McKeon has said over and over for the past three weeks. The problem is, when you're saying it as often as the Reds have, that's a problem in itself.

It's a strange quandary because they entered spring training more unsure of their pitching than hitting. The staff of journeymen and question marks has been a pleasant surprise, becoming the strength of a team that has seven legitimate starting pitchers and three proven relievers in the bullpen.

If things can change that much in a few weeks of meaningless games, think how fast they can change during the regular season - whether that's an upward trend, a downward trend, or a shakeup of the lineup.

What has spring training taught us about the Reds?

1. Without Larkin, the offense just can't get the job done. Larkin is the glue that holds this team together, and not having him this spring because of neck problems has been a big reason for not scoring runs. Sure, the Reds went 46-43 without him last year, but would be hard-pressed to do better this year. For their sake, he is expected back on April 6, five games into the season.

2. The commitment to building with youth is going to cause growing pains. Even guys who finished last season strong are going to struggle - i.e. Willie Greene, Chris Stynes and Jon Nunnally.

Nunnally looked good until the last week, when a 1-for-15 slump dropped his average from the .300s to .278. But Stynes and Greene are bigger concerns. Stynes, who hit .348 in a half season with the Reds last year, entered Saturday's game hitting .226 with only one extra base hit. Greene, who led the team with 26 homers and 91 RBI last year, was hitting .152 (10 for 66) with no homers and only five RBI.

3. It may be tough for any of the young guys to keep their jobs if they don't perform. McKeon is rightfully committed to starting the season with those players because they earned it on the strength of last year. But if they continue to struggle early in the regular season, he may have to yank them.

Waiting are first baseman-outfielder Dmitri Young, hitting .328 this spring, and outfielder Melvin Nieves, a slugger who will come off the disabled list April 6. Nieves in particular could provide some punch - if he can lower his strike out total.

4. There have been some bright spots offensively. First baseman Eduardo Perez has had a solid spring, hitting .311 (24 for 77) with three home runs and 12 RBI.

Backup catcher Brook Fordyce has also been impressive, hitting .406 (13 for 32). Expected starter Eddie Taubensee, meanwhile, has hit only in the .250s. McKeon has said it won't be a strict platoon and Fordyce may see a lot of time, even against right-handers.

Another pleasant surprise: Bret Boone. He hit .300 most of the spring and the changes to his batting stance seem to have worked. CP:Dave Burba

5. The pitching is pretty good. The starting rotation of Dave Burba (2.13 ERA), Mike Remlinger (2.89), Pete Harnisch (3.86), Steve Cooke (2.63) and Brett Tomko (7.88 in limited time) looks a lot stronger now than it did a month ago. The bullpen, anchored by setup men Scott Sullivan and Stan Belinda and 1997 National League saves leader Jeff Shaw, looks like it will be solid again.

6. Burba needs to stay hot. His six-inning perfect game two weeks ago against the Pirates shows that Burba may be blossoming into the ace the Reds need. In that game, he threw 20 of his first 21 pitches for strikes and at one point threw 19 straight strikes. He didn't walk a batter in his first 25 innings this spring.

Burba, however, has a history of hot and cold streaks, and he has to avoid the cold ones for the Reds to have a chance.

7. General Manager Jim Bowden's gambles look good so far. It was unclear what pitchers Harnisch, Cooke, David Weathers and Mark Hutton would bring when Bowden picked them up, but they've worked to this point. Hutton (2.76 ERA) has been better than Weathers (4.15), but both appear to be comfortable working out of the bullpen in middle relief.

8. The money crunch is a serious problem. With the organization still in a payroll crisis, there's no quick fix for the offense. Bowden can't spend money to get a solid power hitter or leadoff hitter, so the Reds just have to make do with what they have.

9. Health is key. This team is fragile. Remove Larkin or Reggie Sanders, and it's tough to see them competing.

10. Watch for a bad start: The Reds started last season 8-17 and there is reason to believe they could begin 1998 in similar fashion. Their first 14 games are against teams expected to contend for their division titles (San Diego, Los Angeles, Colorado and Houston), followed by easier fare with the New York Mets and Philadelphia Phillies to end the month of April.

The Padres and Dodgers have some of the best pitching in the league, which could be a significant problem for the Reds' hitters.

It's a little like the way the Chicago Cubs opened last season against Atlanta and Florida.

The Cubs went on to lose their first 14 games, a National League record.

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