BY SCOTT MACGREGOR
The Cincinnati Enquirer

Jack McKeon really doesn't know what to expect from his pitching staff this season. He knows what he wants, but has only the slightest hint of what he may get.

''Basically, we've got three starters and some vacancies to fill,'' the Reds manager said Tuesday, a week before pitchers and catchers report to spring training in Sarasota, Fla.

So it is for many teams this season, the dreaded expansion year that puts even the thinnest of pitching staffs on a Slim-Fast diet. Only a handful of teams have a pitching staff they can fully trust heading into spring training, and the Reds, who don't have an established No. 1 starter, aren't one of them.

What the Reds do have is a collection of young pitchers with potential and journeymen who needed a place to land. What they'll get out of either group may determine the course of the season.

''A lot's going to depend on what we see in spring training,'' McKeon said. ''To build the club, you hope some of the young kids come through, but not at the expense of a proven guy that has turned himself around. If one of those kids comes through, you're gaining strength for the future.''

Gone are proven veterans like Mike Morgan, Pete Schourek, John Smiley and Kent Mercker. In their place are mainly questions.

Will Brett Tomko establish himself as a top-line starter instead of just a rookie phenom? Who will fill the final two spots in the starting rotation? Is Pete Harnisch back to his old form, or past his prime? And what's going on with all these well-traveled veterans the Reds have signed recently, the undistinguished 28- to 30-year olds? ''You just don't know,'' McKeon said. ''You're going on what they've done in the past. Sometimes it takes until 28 or 29 for a guy to finally come around. A lot of these guys are in the same category that Pete Schourek and Jeff Shaw were in, bouncing around.''

The good news: The bullpen, led by closer Shaw and set-up men Scott Sullivan and Stan Belinda, is the team's strength. In addition, the starting rotation's top three spots are essentially locked up with Tomko, Dave Burba and Mike Remlinger, all of whom finished 1997 impressively.

But the final two spots in the rotation are up for grabs. McKeon and pitching coach Don Gullett will choose from among veterans with so-so track records (Harnisch, Steve Cooke, David Weathers, Mark Hutton and newly signed David West) and youngsters without any significant major-league track record (Jim Crowell and Gabe White).

''We don't know what they're going to deliver,'' McKeon said. Cooke, 28, started 32 games last year in Pittsburgh but was 9-15 with a 4.30 ERA. Hutton, 28, pitched well with the Florida Marlins last year (3-1, 3.78 ERA) but didn't fare as well after being traded to Colorado, where he had a 7.11 ERA in eight games. Harnisch, 31, is a former All-Star who won 16 games in 1993, but missed most of last season suffering from depression.

White, 25, looked good last year with a 2-2 record and a 4.39 ERA in 12 games. But he and Crowell, 23, lack experience.

The upside to every pitcher on the roster, experienced or not, is that he came at a cheap price. Harnisch, the most established, signed for just $300,000.

''We certainly don't have anything to lose by giving these guys a look,'' McKeon said.

The top three starters should be reliable, although how good they'll be can't be easily predicted.

Tomko, who came out of the bullpen when McKeon took over as manager in late July, posted an 11-7 record with a 3.43 ERA - impressive numbers for a rookie. But he was, after all, a rookie.

''He's a strong kid who should get better,'' McKeon said.

Burba, 31, won his final five starts last season to finish 11-10 with a 4.73 ERA. Remlinger, 31, spent an entire season in the majors for the first time in his career and was 8-8 with a 4.14 ERA. He had a team-high 145 strikeouts in 124 innings.

But the Reds need more.

''We need those three guys to give us 10-15 games over .500 (combined),'' McKeon said. ''They need to be better than .500 pitchers.''

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