BY JOHN ERARDI
The Cincinnati Enquirer

Tony Perez

Tony Perez, who was Mr. Patience at the plate in leading baseball with 1,119 RBI from 1967-1977 (an average of 102 a year), will have to wait at least two more years for baseball immortality.

And perhaps as many as 12.

''I'll just wait and see what happens,'' Perez said Monday from his home in Puerto Rico after learning that only Don Sutton had been elected to the Baseball Hall of Fame. ''I'm disappointed - I know next year is going to be impossible - but I'm hopeful for (2000).''

The vote (473 votes cast; 355 needed for election) x-Don Sutton, 386 Tony Perez, 321 Ron Santo, 204 Jim Rice, 203 Gary Carter 200 Steve Garvey, 195 Bruce Sutter, 147 Tommy John, 129 Jim Kaat, 129 Dave Parker, 116 Bert Blyleven 83 Dave Concepcion, 80 Minnie Minoso, 76 Luis Tiant, 62 Keith Hernandez, 51 Dwight Evans, 49 Mickey Lolich, 39 Ron Guidry, 37 Bob Boone, 26. Dropped from future consideration for failing to receive at least 24 votes Jack Clark, 7 Pedro Guerrero, 6 Willie Randolph, 5 Carney Lansford, 3 Brian Downing, 2 Mike Flanagan, 2 Rick Dempsey, 1.

Next year is the monster class of George Brett, Nolan Ryan, Robin Yount and Carlton Fisk. Perez, who batted fourth (cleanup) and fifth with the Big Red Machine, is given no chance to be elected with those four superstars.

In 2000, the biggest newcomer on the ballot is Jack Morris.

In 2001, things would get difficult again for Perez. Dave Winfield, Kirby Puckett and Don Mattingly are rookies on that ballot.

In 2002 is Ozzie Smith and Andre Dawson.

''We could be looking at (Perez having to wait for) the veteran's committee (in 2010),'' said Bill Deane, who is regarded as the expert on Hall of Fame voting patterns.

Perez received 68% of the vote (75% is required) in this, his seventh year on the ballot. He was 34 votes short this year, an improvement of nine votes over last year.

Perez, 55, has eight more years of eligibility with the Baseball Writers of America. If not elected by the BBWAA by then, his eligibility goes into limbo for three years, and is turned over to the veteran's committee in 2010.

''A lot is going to depend on how many of the four (superstars) get in next year,'' said Deane. ''If two get in and two don't - and that's a pretty good possibility - that leaves Yount and Fisk on the ballot in 2000. If three or all four get in next year, then Tony's chances improve considerably.''

''Three'' is a possibility because Yount has 3,000 hits, which has always been regarded as virtually automatic grounds for induction.

''I was hoping Tony would get closer than this (34 votes) so that he would keep himself on the forefront of the voters' minds," said Deane. "With Tony having only 68% after seven years on the ballot, one has to wonder how many more votes he's going to pick up as strong candidates continue to come onto the ballot.''

Perez by year Tony Perez's Hall of Fame voting percentages: 1992: 50 1993: 55 1994: 58 1995: 56 1996: 66 1997: 66 1998: 68

By crossing the threshold of 60% in BBWAA, Perez is assured that his name will be forwarded to the veterans' committee, unless the rules change. It isn't likely, however, that the 60% rule will change, because so few players attain that level.

Jayson Stark, a national baseball writer with the Philadelphia Inquirer, said Perez is a lock to be inducted by the veterans' committee, because their list of eligible candidates has been pared back so far in recent years. A player has to have attained at least 100 votes in 1991 or before, or 60% of the vote from 1992 forward.

One thing that has hurt Perez, said Deane, is that statistics as 300 victories, 3,000 hits and 500 home runs are considered landmarks, but 1,500 RBI are not.

''But 1,500 RBI are just as big as 300, 3,000 and 500,'' Deane said. ''If you look at the RBI numbers and who've achieved them, it definitely should be as monumental. But nobody has ever focused on that.''

Perez is 18th on the all-time RBI list with 1,652. Every player with more RBI is either enshrined or not yet eligible. Among the reasons some voters have given for not voting for Perez is that he was not a dominant player of his era (compared to, say, such first baseman as Willie Stargell and Willie McCovey) and never led the league in home runs or RBI. Several voters have said they won't vote for Perez for the Hall when such first baseman as Orlando Cepeda and Gil Hodges are not enshrined.

Cepeda and Hodges are considered strong candidates with the veterans' committee this year. Perez and Cepeda are tied for the most home runs (379) by a Latin American player. Perez and Hodges both had seven 100-RBI seasons.

If one or both are elected by the veterans', that will provide more fuel for Perez proponents, Deane said.

When Perez was asked Monday whether he would cooperate with anybody who wanted to start a campaign for his Hall candidacy, including a glitzy pamphlet as has been done for some other Hall candidates in years past, Perez said ''sure.''

''I would cooperate with anybody who wanted to point some things out,'' Perez said. ''But it wouldn't be right if I went out on my own and said, 'I did this,' or 'I did that.' ''

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