BY JOHN ERARDI
The Cincinnati Enquirer

Tony Perez

Former Reds slugger Tony Perez will come up short again when the Baseball Hall of Fame vote is announced Monday.

Bill Deane, the former Hall of Fame researcher who is the recognized expert on Hall voting patterns, predicts Perez will finish ''15 to 20 votes short.'' That is 3 percent-to-5 percent shy of the 75 percent vote required for enshrinement.

Deane believes Dodgers pitcher Don Sutton, who won 300-plus games, will be the only player elected this year.

The balloting is done by the 400-plus voting members of the Baseball Writers Association of America (BBWAA).

''Tony will ultimately be elected, but not before the 21st century,'' Deane said.

Deane expects that former Reds and Pirates slugger Dave Parker, who received 18 percent of the vote last year, will continue to move up in the balloting. It is Parker's second year on the ballot; Perez's seventh. Perez received 66 percent of the vote a year ago.

A player who gets 60 percent or more of the vote in any one year becomes eligible for induction by the veterans committee after a five-year waiting period following the expiration of his 15-year BBWAA window.

A player is allowed 15 years of Hall consideration by the BBWAA as long as that player receives 5 percent or more of the ballots cast. A player who dips below that is eliminated from future consideration.

Deane thinks Perez's only hope for election this year is if enough of the electorate recognizes this is probably his last chance to make it for while. There are some huge names after this year.

For example, players becoming eligible for election next year include George Brett, Robin Yount, both of whom had 3,000 hits, and Nolan Ryan, who had 5,000 strikeouts. Just a notch below them is former Boston and Chicago White Sox catcher Carlton Fisk.

There's a brief lull in 2000 (Jack Morris), but in 2001 (Dave Winfield, Kirby Puckett, Don Mattingly) and 2002 (Andre Dawson and Ozzie Smith), the competition picks up again.

Typically, when there are ''superstars'' making their first appearances on the ballot, voters clear the decks (the ballots allow for a maximum submission of 10 names) and elect only the superstars. Mere ''stars,'' such as Perez, usually suffer a dropoff in those years.

''If three or four (of the big names) next year were to be elected, that would leave some room for people (such as Perez) to start moving up again (in 2000),'' Deane said.

If only one or two are elected, the carryover year of 2000 would likely be too full for Perez's election, thereby bumping his chances well into the latter stages - if at all - of the 15 years his name can remain on the ballot.

The top ''rookies'' on this year's ballot are catcher Gary Carter, pitcher Bert Blyleven, first baseman Jack Clark and second baseman Willie Randolph. Carter hit 324 home runs, made 11 All-Star teams and won three Gold Gloves. Blyleven won 287 games and struck out 3,701 batters. Randolph finished among the all-time top 10 for second baseman in games, putouts, assists and double plays, while getting 2,210 hits. Clark, a fearsome clutch hitter, had 340 home runs.

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